FPL GW11 Tips

The last gameweek of Fantasy Premier League before another international break is here. So, if you can try to save one free transfer to the next round, as having two free transfers during the international break can be crucial, if we see a lot of injuries again. 

As usual, let’s jump to our FPL GW11 Tips.

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FPL GW11 Tips

Key notes for GW11

Let’s start with key notes for FPL GW11. We use xG and xA in our analysis. If you are not sure what those stats mean, read our article about expected goals.

Player notes

  • Salah, Antonio, Mané & Ronaldo are the strongest FPL picks based on xG
  • If you held Toney and Mbeumo until now, just play them both against Norwich. It is time for both attackers to reward their owners
  • if you have a Brentford defender in your team, play him. Brentford has second highest probability of a clean sheet in GW11
  • With Firmino injured, Jota is a great differential pick for GW11
  • With Torres injured, we will likely see Foden playing up front for Manchester City. You can get City attacker with relatively low rotation risk into your team for just 8.2 m
  • Chilwell and James were rested in the Champions League. If you can, play them both in FPL GW11
  • If you have Smith Rowe in your FPL team, play him in GW11 and GW13

Team notes

  • Worst defenses: Newcastle, Norwich, Watford (in that order – Norwich the most) conceded the most xG this season
  • Best defenses: City, Chelsea, Brentfordconceded the fewest xG this season
  • Worst attacks: Norwich, Newcastle and Watford accumulated the fewest xG this season
  • Best attacks: Liverpool, Man City, West Ham accumulated highest xG this season

Who is the best captain in FPL GW11

We will keep the captaincy section short.

If you would like to know more about the process we use to select the captain every gameweek, read our article: How to pick the right captain in FPL?

According to this decision-making process, we think Mohamed Salah is the best captain in FPL GW11.

Son is our number two, and Aubameyang is number three. 

What bookies odds say about GW11

As usual, we converted bookies odds into probabilities using our Odds to probability calculator, to assess the potential of gameweek 11.

Clean sheet odds for GW11

Chelsea is the only team with a probability of a clean sheet in GW11 higher than 50 %. Bookies also favor Brentford (44 %), Arsenal (42 %) and Brighton (42 %) to keep a clean sheet in GW11.

Bookies expect 5.27 clean sheets in gameweek 11. In last season, we were used to a rate of 5.89 per clean sheets gameweek. This season we have seen clean sheets at the rate of 5.7 clean sheets per gameweek.

An average number of clean sheets per gameweek finally returned to the mean, so we are no longer in the phase of defensive overperformance.

Due to correction in the number of clean sheets: Chelsea, Liverpool

Chelsea overperformed their defensive expectations the most from all teams. The blues should have kept 4.56 clean sheets instead of 5 according to our expected clean sheets table.

Due to an improvement in the number of clean sheets: Leicester, Watford

Watford underperformed their defensive expectations the most from all teams. They should have kept 1.96 clean sheets instead of 0 according to our expected clean sheets table.

You can see the expected clean sheets table and clean sheet odds for all Premier League teams here.

Goalscoring odds for GW11

Another gameweek, another time when Salah leads the anytime goalscorer odds in Premier League. The probability of him scoring is 46 %. He is closely followed by Aubameyang with 45 % and Toney with 42 %.

You can look at all most likely goalscorers here.

FPL GW11 Team - scout selection

Now let’s look at our FPL team for GW11. Salah is our GW11 captain.

Goalkeeper

Ramsdale

4.7 m | WAT (H)

Defence

TAA

7.6 m | WHU (A)

James

5.8 m | BUR (H)

Chilwell

6.0 m | CRY (A)

Jansson

4.7 m | NOR (H)

Midfield

Salah (C)

12.9 m | WUH (A)

Son (VC)

10.2 m | EVE (A)

Raphinha

6.6 m | LEI (H)

Mbeumo

5.6 m | NOR (H)

Attack

Toney

6.6 m | NOR (H)

Aubameyang

10 m | WAT (H)

Conclusion

We hope our FPL GW11 tips helped you to gather some useful information before the deadline.

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Good luck in FPL GW11!

Further reading: FPL Tips for success

Matej Šuľan

Fantasy Football enthusiast with two top 1k finishes in FPL. Best FPL overall rank: 119th in 2019/20 season. Five top 500 finishes in UCL Fantasy, best overall rank: 23rd in 2018/19 season. Founder of Fantasy Football Reports.