In this article, we will look at the best captain picks for Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 21.
If you are familiar with our captaincy decision-making process, we always pick a reliable player as our captain that has an easy fixture. We developed our captaincy index – a score that help us to find best captain picks for any gameweek.
So, if you are not sure who to captain in Gameweek 21, check our calculations for the inspiration.
BTW, follow us on Twitter (@FplReports), so you do not miss out on any of our new articles and news. We are also retweeting team news and other interesting stuff that might be useful for your FPL team.
We picked a range of players and calculated captaincy index for them. You can check it in the table below. Players are sorted by the highest score in captaincy index. Best captaincy picks in GW21 are at the top.
|Player||Captaincy Index||Goalscorer Odds||Reliability Index/3||Form/25||1/oposition FDR||Is midfielder/10||Home/10|
*Note: based Haaland’s reliability and scoring consistency from other leagues, we used approximation (max-min)/2 = (0.5 – 0)/2 = 0.25 to calculate his reliability index.
If you are more into the manual process of picking the best captain in FPL, check our article: How to pick a captain in FPL?
Best Gameweek 21 Captain
According to our captaincy index, Haaland is the best captain in FPL Gameweek 21.
Salah is the number 2 captaincy pick and Mahrez number 3.
History of our captaincy picks
Captaincy index explained
Fantasy Football Report’s Captaincy Index is a sum of six numbers. When looking at each individually, they cannot give us the full picture of whether a player is a good captaincy option or not. But when we combine them, we will get a better picture of the player’s captaincy potential.
Variables in Captaincy Index
- Goalscorer Odds – the probability that a player will score a goal according to a bookies odds. It is a different number for each match. We convert bookies odds into probabilities using our own Odds to Probability Calculator. (*if double gameweek, the sum of goalscoring odds for both matches)
- Reliability Index – this is a number that measure how reliable was a player in delivering stable output in his 3 previous Premier League seasons. It is a count of how many seasons a player ended up the season with more than 200 points. So if a player scored more than 200+ in all three previous seasons, his Reliability Index is 3 / 3 = 1. If a player ended up only one season with more than 200 points, his reliability index is 1 / 3 = 0.33.
- Form – this is the form number from Official FPL stats
- Opposition FDR – Fixture Difficulty Ranking of opposition in current gameweek. (*if double gameweek, the average FDR for both matches)
- Is Midfielder – Boolean variable. If a player is midfielder, the number is 1. If not, it is 0. The idea behind this variable is that mids are usually scoring bigger hauls than forwards, as they earn more points for goals and clean sheets. We want our system to get a slight advantage to midfielders over forwards.
- Is Home – Boolean variable. If a player plays at home in the current gameweek, the number is 1. If not, it is 0. We want to our system to get slight advatage to players playing at home. (*if double gameweek, the weighted average for both matches, the FDR is weight)
Weights of variables
Each variable has its own weight according to its importance in our overall metric. Those weights are:
- Weight of Goalscorer Odds = 1
- Weight of Reliability = 1/2
- Weight of Form = 1/25
- Weight of opposition FDR = 1/(FDR*FDR) (*if double gameweek FDR = 2/(FDR*FDR))
- Weight of Is Midfielder = 1/10
- Weight of Is Home = 1/10
The formula for captaincy index calculation
Then, the captaincy index is calculated as sum of variables multiplied by their weights:
Captaincy Index = Goalscored Odss + 1/2 * Reliability Index + 1/25 * Form + 1/FDR + 1/10 * Is Midfielder + 1/10 * Is Home