UCL Fantasy Final Tips: The last whistle

The last match of the current Champions League season is here. The competition is soon over, and so does our UCL Fantasy.

We have the last chance to do something about the overall ranking of our fantasy football teams, or to overtook our mini-league rivals.

But it will not be easy this time…

Let’s look at UCL Fantasy Final Tips.

Tips for Matchday 13 of UCL Fantasy

Strategy for UCL Fantasy Final

Well, this is the final. So, we all have to pick our fantasy team basically from only 22 players that we think will start the match.

Many UCL Fantasy teams will be alike, so there is not much room to move up in ranking or in mini-leagues.

That is good news for those who lead their mini-league, and bad for those who are chasing. But…

There is still a way how to shake up the rankings and I will tell you how.

However, your strategy depends on your position in the mini-league.

There are two options:

You either lead your league and you aim to retain the number one spot, or you chase and you want to overtake the rivals above you.

Let’s look at each option individually.

Strategy for mini-league leaders

If you are leading you UCL Fantasy mini-league before the final, you need to make sure, that your rivals will not score more points than you will.

So, the best approach here is to have exactly the same team as your rivals.

If you are leading, and you know your rival very well, you know how he thinks and how his team will approximately look like in the final, this is what you should do.

Do your best to field exactly the same team as your rivals will. Try to captain the same player as he will.

If you both have exactly the same team, you both will score the same number of fantasy points. So, there is no chance that your rival will overtake you.

If you are leading your league, you have to play defensively, and try to match the team and the captain of your rival.

Strategy for mini-league chasers

As you probably already know, the strategy for mini-league chasers will be the opposite of the strategy for mini-league leaders.

You have to differentiate your team from the team of the leader as much as you can. And of course, captain a different player.

This is a risky approach. Very risky.

You may lose a lot, but you may win big if you get it right.

You could go all-in into one team that you think will win the final.

Do you think that City will beat Chelsea? Then go for 8 City players. Do you think Chelsea will keep a clean sheet against City? Go for 5 Chelsea defenders. You get my point.

If you are chasing, there is no room for diversification. Diversification may protect you from the attacks of players below you. But concentration on one team can create you an opportunity to win your mini-league.

It is like on the financial market: “Diversification protects wealth, concentration creates wealth.”

Of course, the risk is much higher when you decide for concentration, but in the end, it might worth it.

And if you have nothing to lose, and the win is the only option for you, you just have to go for it.

But do it wisely!

Support your opinions and your decisions with the data, odds, and every other piece of information you are able to collect.

That way you will be taking a “calculated risk”.

Go get it.

Probabilities of winning the final

Even on this matchday, we will use our Odds to probability calculator.

Let’s look at what bookies think and who do they favor to win in the Champions League Final.

TeamProbability of winning the Final
Manchester City66 %
Chelsea34 %

Bookies favor Manchester City over Chelsea, and they assigned a 66 % probability of winning the final to Citizens.

Clean sheet odds for the final

Any chance of a clean sheet in the UCL Fantasy Final? Let’s look at bookies’ clean sheet odds.

TeamProbability of clean sheet
Manchester City41 %
Chelsea21 %

According to bookies odds, City are more likely to keep a clean sheet. But do not get too excited about clean sheets in the final.

Based on the clean sheet odds, we should expect only 0,62 clean sheets in the final, which is pretty low.

Balls recovering heroes

Picking players that are good at recovering balls is the safe way to UCL fantasy points. From these two teams, these are players that do well in that metric:

  • Jorginho (must-have unless you want to go all-in in City midfielders as I do – more about that in my squad section)
  • Dias (must-have)
  • Rodri, Kanté, Azpillicueta, Kanté

Best captain for UCL Fantasy Final

Well, the captaincy is tricky in the final. It is an exceptional match.

We would say, you should captain the best player from the team you think will win.

That’s why we are going for Kevin De Bruyne as our number one captain pick.

If you are looking for a differential captain, go for Riyad Mahrez who has an exceptional champions league campaign – he did pretty well in the last round as our number one captain pick for the 2nd leg of the semifinals.

Predicted line ups for Champions League Final

Also let’s look, how both teams might line up in the final.

Manchester City predicted line up

Ederson; Walker, Stone, Dias, Zinchenko; Rodri, Gundogan; Mahrez, De Bruyne, Foden; B. Silva

Chelsea predicted line up

Mendy; Christensen, Silva, Rudiger; Chilwell, Jorginho, Kanté, Azpilicueta; Mount, Werner, Havertz

My fantasy team and my strategy

I will do it differently this time. I am not going to post our “scout team” for the UCL Fantasy Final.

But I will post my personal team, and how it will likely look in the final.

My team is with 819 points currently 402nd overall and I am leading my country (Slovakia) mini-league by 31 points.

It is a comfortable position to be in, however, I am a bit disappointed that I will not beat my best overall position from the 2018/19 season when I finished 25th overall.

My aim for this matchday is to safely retain my number one spot in my country mini-league and to get into the top 400 overall.

I have a comfortable 31 points lead in my mini-league, so I can afford to take a calculated risk that could get me into the top 400.

That’s why I will be all-in in City players.

However, I chose the safe captaincy option, and pick Kevin De Bruyne as my number one captain.

I have not confirmed any transfers yet, so it might change, but this is how I will likely line up for the UCL Fantasy Final:

UCL Fantasy Final Scout Squad

So, choose your strategy wisely for the last matchday of UCL Fantasy. But most importantly, enjoy it.

We play the game for joy, so even if you do not achieve your mini-league goals after the final whistle, you should smile and be thankful for the ride we have during this season.

It was a hell of a journey.

Hopefully, UCL Fantasy Tips from FPL Reports helped you on your path to UCL Fantasy success. Good luck to all readers in the last matchday of the season.

Cheers,

Matej.

Matej

Author:

Ing. Matej Šuľan

FPL Records (Overall ranking):
2016/17: 421 7212017/18: 43 485
2018/19: 9422019/20: 119

One thought on “UCL Fantasy Final Tips: The last whistle

  1. thanks man, I was following you through the year. I am chasing tonight since I am 2nd within mini leauge so I will bet on Chelsea

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