In our research, we have looked at players’ points from the last four seasons in order to identify the best Fantasy Premier League picks based on their long term value – players capable of delivering FPL points on regular basis in every season.
Here are our results.
The best FPL assets over the last four seasons
Here is our full list of the best players picks. We only considered players that are regular starters for their teams, and only players that played at least the last three seasons.
To explain the columns:
AVG points per game – Average from points per game a player registered over the last four seasons (18/19, 19/20, 20/21, 21/22)
*players points calculated only for last three season
Standard DEV – Standard deviation from points per game a player registered over the last four seasons
Expected points per 38 – Expected FPL points per 38 games (AVG points per game * 38)
Players are sorted by the average of their points per game over the last four seasons.
How to use our list of best FPL picks
Still struggling who to pick into your FPL team? Our list could help you find players that are very reliable in delivering points based on data from last four seasons.
This could be very useful for FPL managers who think long-term and who do not get easily distracted by short-term volatility in players performances.
Basically, this can help you pick the core of your FPL team – players, who will be in your squad through the majority of the season (you would sell them only if they got injured).
It will help you find set and forget players. Because they had stable output in last four seasons, we can expect similar performance from them in next season as well.
Focus on players with high Expected points per 38 games and with low Standard Deviation of their points and who you think have high chance of playing at least 32+ games in the season.
High Expected points per 38 games means that players is expected to score high amount of points in 38 games.
Low Standard deviation means that the points they are expected to score should be very close to the expected output and shouldn’t deviate much from it in both directions.
Please note, that some of those players are rotation risks, so they can be benched from time to time and do not get 38 games during the season – therorefore their total points output will be lower.
Best FPL goalkeepers to pick based on long-term performance
First, let’s take a look at most reliable FPL goalkeepers over the last four seasons.
We really like the look of Allisons’s and Lloris’s average points over the last four seasons they played. If you are willing to invest more money in your goalkeeper, do not overlook these two.
The standard deviation of Dubravka’s average points per game from the last four seasons is very low, making him probably the most reliable goalkeeper in the game. If he plays 38 games in 2022/23 season, he should get very close to 139 points output. However, after the Nick Pope transfer, we are not sure who is going to be Newcastle number 1 goalkeeper.
If you are looking for cheaper options (4.5) than Lloris and Allison, consider Dubravka or Guaita. They are regularly scoring fewer points than more expensive options, but they are the best picks at a 4.5 m price point.
Best FPL defenders to pick based on long-term performance
Let’s move to the most reliable defenders in Fantasy Premier League.
It is no surprise to see a Liverpool full-backs TAA and Robertson up top. They scored a big amount of points in the last four seasons and were very reliable assets for our FPL teams.
The standard deviation of Stone’s and Chilwell’s points per game in the last four seasons is very high, which indicates that they could score much more or much less than their expected output.
Players like Laporte, Digne, Keane, Dunk, Mings shouldn’t be overlooked either. Their output is stable (when they play), so their points at the end of the 2022/23 season could be very close to their expected output.
Do not overlook them when picking defenders into your FPL squad for new season.
Best FPL midfielders to pick based on long-term performance
No player has shown such reliability over the last four seasons as Egyptian King Mo Salah. He is as close to essential pick as possible and going without him into the 2022/23 FPL season is a pretty big risk. He has a high expected output and low standard deviation of average points game from the last four seasons which makes him a perfect set and forget player in your FPL squad.
Fernandes has high expected output, but also high standard deviation, so the risk is high that he might not deliver points close to his expected points.
Mahrez, Mount and Maddison should also be in consideration, especially if you would like to spread the money around your squad.
From cheaper alternatives, Ward-Prowse, Bernardo, and Tielemans are also able to deliver a solid amount of points on regular basis without high volatility.
Best FPL forwards to pick based on long-term performance
We have a lot of choices among forwards this season. Haaland is likely a no-brainer for the majority of FPL managers – but we do not have a data available to evaluate his performance in FPL. But who are others most reliable picks for our three precious forward spots?
Kane, Vardy are both expensive FPL assets, but you get what you paid for – in this case, regular delivery of FPL points.
Do not overlook Wilson and Jimenez – when they play there are good FPL picks as they deliver too.
Our FPL team from reliable FPL assets
So, how our FPL team could look like if you pick only reliable players from our list? Note: this could be a perfect zombie team for 2022/23 season:
As you can see, there are some players in Fantasy Premier League that are able to deliver a similar amount of points every season. That makes them almost the best and the most reliable fantasy picks.
However, it does not mean you should ignore the rest.
Or new signings.
Pick some of these reliable assets into the core of your FPL squad.
And fill the rest with other players (like Haaland, Diaz) or others you expect to do well despite having a lack of data to evaluate their FPL performance.
Good luck in 2022/23 season!