The last international break of the season ends soon, so it is time to think again about our Fantasy Premier League teams. Hope you save your free transfer from the last gameweek to this one, and you have the flexibility in GW12 that two free transfers offer.
As usual, let’s jump to our FPL GW12 Tips.
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FPL GW12 Tips
Key notes for GW12
Let’s start with key notes for FPL GW12. We use xG and xA in our analysis. If you are not sure what those stats mean, read our article about expected goals.
- Salah, Antonio, Mané are the strongest FPL picks based on xG
- Gallagher’s underlying numbers are very good. He has 4 goals and 2 assists from 4.35 xG and 2.5 xA. This season he is 7th for xG among all players.
- If you held Toney and Mbeumo until now, just play them both against Newacstle. They let us down against Norwich, but can they keep blanking against easy opponents?. It really is time for both Brentford attackers to reward their owners with fantasy points
- With Firmino injured, and with doubt about Mané’s start, Jota is a great differential pick for GW12 and onwards.
- Aubameyang is top for xG (3.63) in the last 5 matches
- Based on fixtures, doubling up on Kane and Son could be a great differential move in GW12. However, just be aware of risks and Kane’s bad form.
- Sanchéz replacement: If you are looking for a differential goalkeeper, do not overlook Nick Pope. Burnley have a great run of fixtures, Pope is 5th among goalkeepers for saves. Once Burnley starts to keep clean sheets again, Pope will be delivering double digits hauls again.
- Looking for gameweek 12 differentials? Check our three FPL GW12 differentials here.
- Worst defenses: Norwich, Newcastle, Watford (in that order – Norwich the most) conceded the most xG this season
- Best defenses: City, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, conceded the fewest xG this season
- Worst attacks: Norwich, Newcastle and Watford accumulated the fewest xG this season
- Best attacks: Liverpool, Man City, Chelsea accumulated highest xG this season
Fixtures to target
These are fixtures to target in FPL Gameweek 12 according to the bookies odds.
- Manchester City: 82 % to win and 49 % to score 2.5 + goals
- Liverpool: 65 % to win and 40 % to score 2.5 + goals
- Manchester United: 64 % to win and 36 % to score 2.5 + goals
- Tottenham: 53 % to win and 27 % to score 2.5 + goals
- Chelsea: 52 % to win and 24 % to score 2.5 + goals
Aleksei used xG data to model the team strength of all Premier League teams. He used data from the past 6 gameweeks. In order to get the most accurate results (without the influence of outliers), he ruled out data from the best and worst performance of each team. This feature makes his tables unique.
Here is his visualization of attacking (ATK) and defending (DEF) team strength for each team for the last 6 gameweek without the best and worst performance.
Blue is the highest and red is the lowest team strength.:
You can find a lot more in Aleksei’s full GW12 Teams Report, for example, how the strength of each team changed from the previous gameweek.
GW12 Players Report
Which players are currently in the best form based on Aleksei’s xG model? He used data from last 6 gameweeks (without worst and performances to eliminate outliers) to find out the best in form Premier League players across all positions.
You can read his GW12 players report here.
Premier League Predicted Lineups for GW12
Who do we expect to start in FPL GW12? Check out our Premier League predicted lineups for GW12.
Who is the best captain in FPL GW12
We will keep the captaincy section short.
If you would like to know more about the process we use to select the captain every gameweek, read our article: How to pick the right captain in FPL?
According to this decision-making process, we think Son Heung Min is the best captain in FPL GW12.
Salah is our number two, and Ronaldo is number three captain pick.
What bookies odds say about GW12
As usual, we converted bookies odds into probabilities using our Odds to probability calculator, to assess the potential of gameweek 12.
Clean sheet odds for GW12
Manchester City is the only team with a probability of a clean sheet in GW12 higher than 50 %. Bookies also favor Man United (39 %), Chelsea (36 %) and Liverpool (36 %) to keep a clean sheet in GW12.
Bookies expect 5.3 clean sheets in gameweek 12. In last season, we were used to a rate of 5.89 per clean sheets gameweek. This season we have seen clean sheets at the rate of 5.73 clean sheets per gameweek.
An average number of clean sheets per gameweek finally returned to the mean, so we are no longer in the phase of defensive overperformance.
Chelsea conceded a goal against Burnley in GW11, and they are no longer a team due to the correction in the number of clean sheets.
Due to correction in the number of clean sheets: Southampton, Manchester City
Southampton overperformed their defensive expectations the most from all teams. The saints should have kept 2.38 clean sheets instead of 5 according to our expected clean sheets table.
Due to an improvement in the number of clean sheets: Leicester, Watford
Leicester underperformed their defensive expectations the most from all teams. They should have kept 3.1 clean sheets instead of 1 according to our expected clean sheets table.
You can see the expected clean sheets table and clean sheet odds for all Premier League teams here.
Goalscoring odds for GW12
Salah (49 %), Ronaldo (48 %) and Kane (44 %) are most likely to score a goal in FPL GW12 according to bookies any time goalscorer odds.
You can look at all most likely goalscorers here.