The deadline for the first leg of R16 of Fantasy Champions League is here.
It is the last chance to set our teams as best as we can for the elimination rounds. No more unlimited transfers after today’s deadline.
Let’s jump to our tips for UCL Fantasy R16 1st leg.
Tips for Matchday 7 of UCL Fantasy
Teams to focus on in Round of 16
In the previous article, we discussed teams you should focus on in your UCL Fantasy squad for Round of 16 1st leg.
You should read that whole article because the information there is much important.
However, to keep it short, you should focus on players from teams that are likely to progress to the next round.
Yes, we have 5 free transfers for the quarterfinals, but it might not be enough. We supported this idea with probabilities and calculations in the original article.
We converted bookies odds into probabilities using our Odds to probability calculator to determine which teams are most likely to progress to the next round.
Basically, you should pay special attention to the players from teams from the first half of the following table. In the previous article we discussed why:
|Manchester City||94 %|
|Manchester United||56 %|
|Real Madrid||47 %|
|Inter Milan||23 %|
Best captain picks in R16 1st Leg
During the 1st Leg of UCL Fantasy R16 we can change our captain 3 times, which is a big advantage. That gives us a big chance to get a good captaincy return.
You need to make sure you have a solid captaincy option for each day!
And what is the magic number when you should be satisfied with the return of your captain?
Generally, we consider it to be 6 points. So, when your captain scores 6 points, you keep the armband on him.
But it’s R16 and we can change our captain 3 times. So, we altered our captaincy rule a bit.
We changed our magic captain number to 9 points and decreased it by every playing day.
It means, when your captain scores 9 or more points on the first day (Tuesday), you keep the armband for him. If not, you change it. But then the threshold changes to 8 points on the second playing day (Wednesday).
To recap, the captaincy thresholds for the R16 are:
- 15 Feb: 9 points
- 16 Feb: 8 points
- 22 Feb: 7 points
- 23 Feb: 6 points
And the captains? Well, we picked these four players as best captain options for the first leg of UCL Fantasy R16:
- 16 Feb: Mbappe
- 17 Feb: Lewandowski
- 23 Feb: Mount
- 24 Feb: Haller
However, all those players are expensive heavy hitters, so you probably will not have all of them in your squad.
So, just picked at least two of them into your team. And make sure you have other solid captaincy options for other days.
Balls recovering heroes
As we said many times, balls recovered are a game changer for UCL Fantasy.
That is why you should pay close attention to players that are good at it.
We analyzed, which players are recovering balls at high rate. Here they are:
|Player||Balls Recovered||Matches||Balls Recovered per match|
Pick some of these players into your UCL Fantasy team.
Defenders good at balls recovered offer stable points return even if their teams will not keep a clean sheet.
You just pick them into your team and could get at least 4 points no matter what. That is so great.
Also, do not overlook midfielders who are great at balls recovered as they are usually very cheap.
Their points potential is very high and their points output very stable. We like Casemiro the most from them.
Clean Sheet Odds for R16 1st Leg
After we selected our captains and analyzed balls recovered potential of players, we focus on defenses.
As usual, we converted bookies clean sheet odds into UCL Fantasy R16 clean sheet probabilities using our Odds to probability calculator.
Chelsea and Manchester City have 47 % probability of a clean sheet, so perhaps double up on these two defences could be a good strategy. Bookies also favor Bayern to do well defensively.
You can see all Champions League Clean Sheet Odds here.
Our advice is focus on defenders that meet these 3 requirements:
- Have high chance of clean sheet in the 1st leg of R16
- Have the high chance of progressing to the next round
- Offer something extra (goal threat, assist potential or balls recovered potential).
This team has around 105 m team vealue. If your UCL Fantasy team has value of 107 or 110, aim to upgrade Jota to Mbappe, or Seiwald to Salah.
Our captain sequence is: Foden – Lewandowski – Jorginho – Haller.
How is your team looking right now? Who are you captaining? Leave a comment below.
Good luck in the UCL Fantasy R16!