The deadline for the first leg of the Fantasy Champions League Round of 16 (Matchday 7) is just a few days away. Now it is time to set our teams as best as we can for the elimination rounds.
Let’s jump to our tips for UCL Fantasy R16 1st leg.
1. Tips for Round of 16 – Matchday 7 – of Fantasy Champions League
Focus on teams that have a high chance of advancing to the quarterfinals
In one of our previous articles, we discussed teams you should focus on in your UCL Fantasy squad for the Round of 16 1st leg.
You should read that whole article because the information there is much important.
However, to keep it short, you should focus on players from teams that are likely to progress to the next round.
Yes, we have 5 free transfers for the quarterfinals, but it might not be enough. We supported this idea with probabilities and calculations in the original article.
We converted bookies’ odds into probabilities using our Odds to probability calculator to determine which teams are most likely to progress to the next round.
Basically, you should pay special attention to the players from teams from the first half of the table you can find in that article.
Read more: UCL Fantasy R16: Which teams to focus on?
— Fantasy Football Reports (@FplReports) February 13, 2023
Have a captain for each day
Aim to have four good captaincy options for the Round of 16 – one for each playing day. More about captaincy later in the article.
Pick goalkeepers who play on different days
Do not pick goalkeepers from the same day – that way you cannot use your substitutions for your goalkeeper, if your first goalkeeper blanks.
If you have chips, plan when you use them
If you hadn’t used your chips in the group stage (which is usually the best time to use chips because of good fixtures against whipping boys), plan now when you use them.
Do not overlook players good at balls recovered and MOTM awards
Balls recovered and MOTM awards can be a huge source of points in the Fantasy Champions League. Do not overlook players that are good at balls recovered or MOTM when selecting your squad for R16. More about these players later in the article.
2. Fixtures to target in UCL Fantasy Round of 16
Which fixtures you should target? We always use bookies’ odds to help us determine that. Let’s look at which teams have the highest chance of winning their match in the R16 1st leg and scoring a lot of goals in that game:
- Manchester City – 53 % to win the match, 29 % to score more than 2.5 goals
- Inter Milan– 51 % to win, 23 % to score more than 2.5 goals
- Benfica – 47 % to win, 23 % to score more than 2.5 goals
We also think you should target Frankfurt vs. Napoli match – however, the odds are pretty even for both teams according to bookies.
3. Best players to pick in Round of 16
We look at key players to pick in UCL Fantasy Round of 16 (Matchday 7). We examine each position and each price bracket. You can check our separate articles here:
4. Best captain picks for UCL Fantasy R16 1st Leg
During the 1st Leg of UCL Fantasy R16 we can change our captain 3 times, which is a big advantage. That gives us a big chance to get a good captaincy return.
You need to make sure you have a solid captaincy option for each day!
And what is the magic number when you should be satisfied with the return of your captain?
Generally, we consider it to be 6 points. So, when your captain scores 6 points, you keep the armband on him.
But it’s R16 and we can change our captain 3 times. So, we altered our captaincy rule a bit.
We changed our magic captain number to 8 points and decreased it by every playing day.
It means, when your captain scores 8 or more points on the first day (Tuesday), you keep the armband for him. If not, you change it. But then the threshold changes to 7 points on the second playing day (Wednesday).
To recap, the captaincy thresholds for the R16 are:
- 14 Feb: 8 points
- 15 Feb: 7 points
- 21 Feb: 6 points
- 22 Feb: 5 points
And the captains? Well, we picked these four players as best captain options for the first leg of UCL Fantasy R16:
- 14 Feb: Sané
- 15 Feb: Bellingham
- 21 Feb: Osimhen
- 22 Feb: Haaland
However, all those players are expensive heavy hitters, so you probably will not have all of them in your squad.
So, just picked at least two or three of them for your team. And make sure you have other solid captaincy options for other days.
Read more about our captaincy thresholds: UCL Fantasy Captaincy Thresholds: When to change captain?
5. Balls-recovering heroes
As we said many times, the balls recovered are a game changer for UCL Fantasy.
That is why you should pay close attention to players that are good at it. We analyzed, which players are recovering balls at a high rate.
You can find our tables here: The Most Balls Recovered in UCL Fantasy (Before R16)
Pick some of these players for your UCL Fantasy team. Defenders good at balls recovered offer stable points return even if their teams will not keep a clean sheet.
You just pick them into your team and could get at least 4 points no matter what. That is so great. Also, do not overlook midfielders who are great at balls recovered as they are usually very cheap.
Their points potential is very high and their points output is very stable. We like Florentino the most of them.
6. Most MOTM Awards
Similarly, the MOTM awards are another excellent source of points in Fantasy Champions League.
You can find players good at it in our article: The most Man of The Match (MOTM) awards in UCL Fantasy (Before R16)
7. Odds and Probabilities for Matchday 7
Clean Sheet Odds for R16 1st Leg
After we selected our captains and analyzed the balls-recovering potential of players, we focus on defenses.
As usual, we converted bookies’ clean sheet odds into UCL Fantasy R16 clean sheet probabilities using our Odds to probability calculator.
Clean sheet odds are unusually in a tight range for many teams, so clean sheets will be extremely hard to predict in R16 1st leg. Perhaps you should aim to have all 6 of your defending players (DEF + GK) from different teams and diversify.
Inter Milan and Manchester City have the highest probability of a clean sheet, so you might aim to get one defender from each of those teams. Bookies also favor AC Milan and Benfica to do well defensively.
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You can see all Champions League Clean Sheet Odds here.
Our advice is to focus on defenders that meet these 3 requirements:
- Have high chance of clean sheet in the 1st leg of R16
- Have a high chance of progressing to the next round
- Offer something extra (goal threat, assist potential or balls recovered potential).
Goalscoring Odds for Matchday 7
The any-time goalscorer odds are available here (but only for half of teams: those who play on 14 and 15 February): Champions League Goalscoring Odds.
8. Team selection for UCL Fantasy Round of 16
Here it is. Our UCL Fantasy R16 team selection: Scout Squad.
Image source: UCL Fantasy Official
Our captain sequence is: Sané – Bellingham – Osimhen – Haaland.
How is your team looking right now? Who are you captaining? Leave a comment below.
Good luck in the UCL Fantasy R16!
9. Fantasy Champions League Tips
Find more tips, strategies, and picks for UCL Fantasy in these articles:
- Beginner? Read our guide: How to play UCL Fantasy?
- Confused about the rules? Read the Official guidelines of the game
- Do you want to get better at UCL Fantasy? Read our article about Essential Tips for UCL Fantasy Success.
- Check tips for the Round of 16 replays here: UCL Fantasy Matchday 8 Tips