UCL Fantasy Tips for R16 1st Leg: All you need to know

The deadline for the first leg of R16 of Fantasy Champions League is here.

It is the last chance to set our teams as best as we can for the elimination rounds. No more unlimited transfers after today’s deadline.

We published 6 articles as our tips for UCL Fantasy R16.

Now, we put all these information from these article together to this complete guide, where you find the most important advices and tips for R16.  

Tips for Matchday 7 of UCL Fantasy

First draft for R16

We started our journey towards the UCL Fantasy R16 with our first draft for elimination rounds two weeks ago.

UCL Fantasy R16 picks

Image source: UCL Fantasy Official

As you can see, it is not completely different from our very last draft (at the end of the article). However, this squad has its issues.

Kevin de Bruyne got injured.

It looks that Danilo lost his place under Mauricio Pochetino and, after bad defensive displays lately, we have lost faith with Livepool defense.

Also, amazing form of Luis Suarez convinced us to replace Morata with him. Plus, some other subtle changes, you will find at the end of this article.

Teams to focus on

Then we discussed that players from which teams you should focus on in your UCL Fantasy squad.

You should read that whole article, because information there are much important.

However, to keep it short, you should focus on players from teams that are likely to progress to the next round.

Yes, we have 5 free transfers for the quarterfinals, but it might not be enough. We supported this idea with probabilities and calculations in original article.

We converted bookies odds into probabilities using our Odds to probability calculator to determine which teams are most likely to progress to the next round.

Basically, you should pay special attention to the players from teams from the first half of following table:

TeamQualify to Quarterfinals
Bayern88 %
Man City88 %
Juventus81 %
Liverpool75 %
Real Madrid73 %
PSG58 %
Dortmund56 %
Atletico52 %
Chelsea48 %
Sevilla44 %
Barcelona42 %
Atalanta27 %
Leipzig25 %
Porto19 %
Lazio12 %
Mgladbach12 %

Best captain picks

After we clarified which teams we should focus on, we looked at the best captain choice for every day.

During 1st Leg of UCL Fantasy R16 we can change our captain 3 times, what is big advantage. That gives us big chance to get good captaincy return.

And what is the magic number when you should be satisfied with the return of your captain?

Generally, we consider it to be 6 points. So, when your captain score 6 points, you keep the armband on him.

But its R16 and we can change our captain 3 times. So, we altered our captaincy rule a bit.

We changed our magic captain number to 8 points. But only for first two days of the round.

It means, when your captain scores 8 points in first two days, you keep the armband for him. If not, you change it.

But for the last two days, this number is still 6 points.

So, if your captain score 6 points in the first day, you change him. But if he scores 6 points on the third day, you keep the captaincy on him.

To recap, the captaincy thresholds for the R16 are:

  • 16 Feb: 8 points
  • 17 Feb: 8 points
  • 23 Feb: 6 points
  • 24 Feb: 6 points

And the captains? Well, we picked these four players as best captain options for the first leg of UCL Fantasy R16:

  • 16 Feb: Salah
  • 17 Feb: Haaland
  • 23 Feb: Lewandowski
  • 24 Feb: Sterling

However, all those players are expensive heavy hitters, so you probably will not have all of them in your squad.

So, just picked at least two of them into your team. And make sure you have other solid captaincy options for other days.

Balls recovering heroes

As we said many times, balls recovered are a game changer for UCL Fantasy.

That is why you should pay close attention to players that are good at it.

We analyzed, which players are recovering balls at high rate. Here they are:

PlayerBalls RecoveredMatchesBalls Recovered per Game
Romero72514.4
Hummels54510.8
Upamecano4759.4
Marquinhos4559
Akanji3649
Sule3548.75
Casemiro4258.4
Djimsiti5068.33
Danilo4767.83
Alaba3857.6
Toloi4567.5
Diego Carlos4467.33
Savič4367.17
Jorginho3966.5
Lainer3866.33

Pick some of these players into your UCL Fantasy team. Hummels and Romero are no brainer for us.

They offer stable points return even if their teams will not keep a clean sheet.

You just pick them into your team and get at least 4 points no matter what. That is so great.

Also, do not overlook midfielders who are great at balls recovered as they are usually very cheap.

Their points potential is very high and their points output very stable. We like Casemiro the most from them.

 

Clean Sheet Odds

After we selected our captains and analyzed balls recovered potential of players, we focus on defenses.

As usual, we converted bookies clean sheet odds into R16 clean sheet probabilities using our Odds to probability calculator.

TeamClean Sheet Probability
Man City39 %
Juventus38 %
Atletico34 %
Bayern31 %
Chelsea30 %
Sevilla27 %
Liverpool26 %
Barcelona23 %
Dortmund23 %
Porto22 %
Real Madrid19 %
Atalanta17 %
PSG15 %
Lazio10 %
Leipzig10 %
Mgladbach10 %

Our advice is: “focus on defenders that meet at least 2 of these 3 requirements:

  • Have high chance of clean sheet in the 1st leg of R16
  • Have the high chance of progressing to the next round
  • Offer something extra (goal threat, assist potential or balls recovered potential).

Scout picks for UCL Fantasy R16 1 st Leg

Here it is. Our UCL Fantasy R16 scour selection. It did not change that much from the first draft.

Final Squad for Fantasy Champions League R16

Image source: UCL Fantasy Official

We heavily count on Man City and Bayern players as they have very high probability of progressing to the next round.

Our captain sequence is: Angelino – Haaland – Lewandowski – Gundogan (hopefully his injury is not too serious).

How is your team looking right now? Who are you captaining? Leave a comment below.

Good luck in the UCL Fantasy R16!

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