UCL Fantasy Tips for R16 1st Leg: All you need to know

The deadline for the first leg of R16 of Fantasy Champions League is here.

It is the last chance to set our teams as best as we can for the elimination rounds. No more unlimited transfers after today’s deadline.

Let’s jump to our tips for UCL Fantasy R16 1st leg.  

Tips for Matchday 7 of UCL Fantasy

Teams to focus on in Round of 16

In the previous article, we discussed teams you should focus on in your UCL Fantasy squad for Round of 16 1st leg.

You should read that whole article because the information there is much important.

However, to keep it short, you should focus on players from teams that are likely to progress to the next round.

Yes, we have 5 free transfers for the quarterfinals, but it might not be enough. We supported this idea with probabilities and calculations in the original article.

We converted bookies odds into probabilities using our Odds to probability calculator to determine which teams are most likely to progress to the next round.

Basically, you should pay special attention to the players from teams from the first half of the following table. In the previous article we discussed why:

TeamTo Qualify
Manchester City94 %
Bayern93 %
Chelsea82 %
Liverpool77 %
Ajax75 %
Juventus64 %
Manchester United56 %
PSG53 %
Real Madrid47 %
Atletico44 %
Villareal36 %
Benfica25 %
Inter Milan23 %
Lille18 %
Salzburg7 %
Sporting6 %

Best captain picks in R16 1st Leg

During the 1st Leg of UCL Fantasy R16 we can change our captain 3 times, which is a big advantage. That gives us a big chance to get a good captaincy return.

You need to make sure you have a solid captaincy option for each day!

And what is the magic number when you should be satisfied with the return of your captain?

Generally, we consider it to be 6 points. So, when your captain scores 6 points, you keep the armband on him.

But it’s R16 and we can change our captain 3 times. So, we altered our captaincy rule a bit.

We changed our magic captain number to 9 points and decreased it by every playing day.

It means, when your captain scores 9 or more points on the first day (Tuesday), you keep the armband for him. If not, you change it. But then the threshold changes to 8 points on the second playing day (Wednesday).

To recap, the captaincy thresholds for the R16 are:

  • 15 Feb: 9 points
  • 16 Feb: 8 points
  • 22 Feb: 7 points
  • 23 Feb: 6 points

And the captains? Well, we picked these four players as best captain options for the first leg of UCL Fantasy R16:

  • 16 Feb: Mbappe
  • 17 Feb: Lewandowski
  • 23 Feb: Mount
  • 24 Feb: Haller

However, all those players are expensive heavy hitters, so you probably will not have all of them in your squad.

So, just picked at least two of them into your team. And make sure you have other solid captaincy options for other days.

Balls recovering heroes

As we said many times, balls recovered are a game changer for UCL Fantasy.

That is why you should pay close attention to players that are good at it.

We analyzed, which players are recovering balls at high rate. Here they are:

PlayerBalls RecoveredMatchesBalls Recovered per match
André4158.2
Otamendi4158.2
Mandava4868
Militao4567.5
De Light3657.2
Onguéné3456.8
L. Martinez4066.7
Cancelo3356.6
Christensen3356.6
Capoue3966.5
Fonte3966.5
Upamecano3256.4
Seiwald3866.3
Palhinha3156.2
Dias3056
Jorginho2955.8
Albiol3465.7
Casemiro3365.5
Marquinhos3165.2
Ulmer3165.2
Mazraoui3065

Pick some of these players into your UCL Fantasy team. 

Defenders good at balls recovered offer stable points return even if their teams will not keep a clean sheet.

You just pick them into your team and could get at least 4 points no matter what. That is so great.

Also, do not overlook midfielders who are great at balls recovered as they are usually very cheap.

Their points potential is very high and their points output very stable. We like Casemiro the most from them.

 

Clean Sheet Odds for R16 1st Leg

After we selected our captains and analyzed balls recovered potential of players, we focus on defenses.

As usual, we converted bookies clean sheet odds into UCL Fantasy R16 clean sheet probabilities using our Odds to probability calculator.

Chelsea and Manchester City have 47 % probability of a clean sheet, so perhaps double up on these two defences could be a good strategy. Bookies also favor Bayern to do well defensively. 

You can see all Champions League Clean Sheet Odds here.

 

Our advice is focus on defenders that meet these 3 requirements:

  • Have high chance of clean sheet in the 1st leg of R16
  • Have the high chance of progressing to the next round
  • Offer something extra (goal threat, assist potential or balls recovered potential).

UCL Fantasy R16 Team

Here it is. Our UCL Fantasy R16 steam.

UCL Fantasy R16 Team

Image source: UCL Fantasy Official

This team has around 105 m team vealue. If your UCL Fantasy team has value of 107 or 110, aim to upgrade Jota to Mbappe, or Seiwald to Salah. 

Our captain sequence is: Foden – Lewandowski – Jorginho – Haller.

How is your team looking right now? Who are you captaining? Leave a comment below.

Good luck in the UCL Fantasy R16!

Matej Šuľan

Fantasy Football enthusiast with two top 1k finishes in FPL. Best FPL overall rank: 119th in 2019/20 season. Five top 500 finishes in UCL Fantasy, best overall rank: 23rd in 2018/19 season. Founder of Fantasy Football Reports.

2 thoughts on “UCL Fantasy Tips for R16 1st Leg: All you need to know

  1. Very good analysis. Some of this data is extremely useful and I appreciate your effort to inform us. Most of the information I agree with.
    My team is pretty different from yours though.
    Haller-Lewa-Antony
    KDB-Mahrez-Sane-Salah
    Cancelo-Mendes-Rudiger
    Ulreich
    Bench: Rulli (gk) – Azpilicueta (def) – Mazraoui (def) – Alvarez (mid)

    Comments on FWD: Jota instead of Antony is a fair pick, but I still think Antony has a greater chance of scoring points given the matchup (and is 0.3m cheaper). Also Antony has been playing great on the latest Ajax matches.

    Comments on MID: I don’t trust Foden’s skill to score points very much. Feels like he’s the young kid learning from the most experienced at City (not in his peak yet). So I have avoided him, and went for Mahrez instead, who has been playing great on the latest City matches. Also was able to go for KDB, Sane, Salah (all super stars in mid) because I spent little money on defenders and gk, which I will explain next.

    Comments on DEF: I try to pick cheap defenders that play aggressive roles, or are good at headers (Rudiger in my lineup, for example, is a full back but goes in for headers on corners). Kimmich is wayyyy too expensive. I would trust a defender like Sule instead if I wanted to bet for bayern defs. I went for Rudiger-Azpilicueta who have been extremely consistent in this season’s UCL and are highly likely to acheive a clean sheet against Lille. Also, they’re much cheaper than your T-Alexander-Kimmich duo). This could go wrong for me if chelsea play very bad against Lile but I am pretty confident they will smash them.

    Comments on GK: Again, trying to save money. As long as the keeper gets a clean sheet it’s a win for me. Went for cheap goalkeepers (Ederson is too expensive and will most likely do the same points as other cheaper alternatives). I would have gone for Pasveer if it wasn’t because I already had 4 ajax players in my lineup, so I had to hire Rulli instead (when he’s on his best day, he can do amazing, but he’s just a backup in the rare case that Bayern and Ulreich get a lot of trouble against Salzburg).

    That is the end of my analysis. Thanks again for your help.

    1. Forgot to add, I also didn’t go for bayern defenders because I am afraid that Salzburg will score since their first match is at home (tomorrow). I would be more confident to add bayern defenders if tomorrow’s match was a home game at bayern stadium. HOWEVER, I did risk to put Ulreich as my main keeper just because he has high probabilities to earn clean sheet against Salzburg and he’s VERY cheap and VERY talented (much cheaper than Ederson, for example).

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published.