The previous gameweek of Fantasy Premier League brought mixed emotions for many fantasy managers. Some of them used their wildcard, but it did not go as well as they expected. But we cannot really judge it based on one week performance.
It is time for us to move on.
So, let’s jump to our FPL GW9 Tips.
FPL GW9 Tips
Key notes for GW9
Let’s start with key notes for FPL GW9. We use xG and xA in our analysis. If you are not sure what those stats mean, read our article about expected goals.
- Salah dominates shots stats. He is top for shots and shots on target.
- Antonio’s numbers are still amazing. He is top for xG, 2nd for shots and 2nd for shots on target.
- Mané is top for Non Penalty xG
- Fernandes (3.19), Toney (3.12) and Saint-Maximin (2.65) are top for xA this season
- Mbeumo hit the woodwork 6x this season – more than any other player (Lukaku is 2nd, Belgian hit the woodwork 2 times).
- We think, Son is the best Lukaku replacement, but you have to restructure your team. Replace Lukaku with Toney this week, and next week upgrade some of your cheap mids to Son.
- Worst defenses: Leeds, Watford, Newcastle (in that order – Newcastle the most) conceded the most xG this season
- Best defenses: City, Brentford, Liverpool conceded the fewest xG this season
- Worst attacks: Leeds, Norwich and Watford accumulated the fewest xG this season
- Best attacks: Liverpool, Man City, West Ham accumulated highest xG this season
Who is the best captain in FPL GW9
We will keep the captaincy section short. Injury to Lukaku made a decision a lot easier.
If you would like to know more about the process we use to select the captain every gameweek, read our article: How to pick the right captain in FPL?
According to this decision-making process, we think Mohamed Salah is the best captain in FPL GW9.
Son is our number two, and De Bruyne is our number three captain choice.
What bookies odds say about GW9
As usual, we converted bookies odds into probabilities using our Odds to probability calculator, to assess the potential of gameweek 9.
Clean sheet odds for GW9
Chelsea is the most likely to keep a clean sheet in GW9. The blues has a clean sheet probability of 63 %, which is extremely high. Bookies also favor Manchester City (47 %) and Everton (41 %) to do well defensively.
Bookies expect 5.33 clean sheets in gameweek 9. In last season, we were used to a rate of 5.89 per clean sheets gameweek. This season we have seen clean sheets at the rate of 6.125 clean sheets per gameweek. We can say we are seeing more clean sheets than usual.
Bookies’ odds agree. According to our expected clean sheets table, we should have seen 43.77 clean sheets, however, we saw 49 clean sheets. We are still in the phase of defensive overperformance. The number of clean sheets per gameweek should return to the mean over the season.
Understat’s xG data supports this assumption. This season we have seen 204 goals from 227,3 xG, which means we should have seen more goals.
Manchester City overperformed their defensive expectations the most from all teams. Citizens should have kept 3.48 clean sheets instead of 6 according to our expected clean sheets table.
Manchester United underperformed their defensive expectations the most from all teams. They should have kept 3.05 clean sheets instead of 1 according to our expected clean sheets table.
You can see the expected clean sheets table and clean sheet odds for all Premier League teams here.
Goalscoring odds for GW9
If we do not consider Lukaku, it is Aubameyang who is the most likely to score in GW9 according to bookies any time scorer odds.
You can look at all most likely GW9 goalscorers here.
FPL GW9 Team - scout selection
Now let’s look at our FPL team for GW9. Salah is our GW9 captain.
6.0 m | BHA (A)
7.5 m | MUN (A)
5.5 m | NOR (H)
5.3 m | WAT (H)
4.3 m | BUR (H)
12.8 m | MUN (A)
10.1 m | WHU (A)
8.1 m | NOR (H)
6.6 m | WOL (H)
5.6 m | LEI (H)
6.4 m | LEI (H)