We are in a very hectic period of Fantasy Premier League season where every mistake, every early transfer can be very costly.
There are many injuries, a lot of red and yellow flags across all teams. That shows how important is to be extra careful with our transfers and to manage risk of our FPL teams wisely.
Let’s quickly look at FPL Tips for GW10.
FPL GW10 Tips
Key notes for GW10
Let’s start with key notes for FPL GW10. We use xG and xA in our analysis. If you are not sure what those stats mean, read our article about expected goals.
- Salah dominates the attacking stats – he is top for shots (40), shots on target (23), xG (7.5), and NPxG (6.74)
- Mané & Jota both have great underlying numbers as well. Mané is 3rd for xG (5.42), NPxG (5.42) and shots (31) and 6th for shots on target (11). Jota is 6th for xG (4.07) and NPxG. Perhaps is time to double up on the Reds attack. Despite Firmino being a threat to Jota’s place, we think Salah + Jota + TAA could be the way to go
- TAA is top for xA (3.47)
- Antonio’s stats are still very good, not time to sell
- Livramento is not just a bench fodder, with fixtures Saints have, you should find a way how to play him
- Raphinha like fit for the weekend
- It is time to bring Son in, if you haven’t already
- Worst defenses: Watford, Newcastle, Norwich (in that order – Norwich the most) conceded the most xG this season
- Best defenses: Liverpool, Brentford, City conceded the fewest xG this season
- Worst attacks: Tottenham, Watford and Norwich accumulated the fewest xG this season
- Best attacks: Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool accumulated highest xG this season
Fixtures to target
Let’s look at which fixtures you should target for fantasy points in GW10. Bookies odds will help us with that.
- Man City – 84 % probability to win, 54 % probability of scoring 2.5+ goals
- Liverpool – 77 % to win, 45 % to score 2.5+ goals
- Chelsea – 70 % to win, 36 % to score 2.5+ goals
Who is the best captain in FPL GW10
We will keep the captaincy section short.
If you would like to know more about the process we use to select the captain every gameweek, read our article: How to pick the right captain in FPL?
According to this decision-making process, we think Salah is the best captain in FPL GW10.
Just do not overthink this one. He has the fixture and he is the most reliable player in the game.
Son is our number two, and De Bruyne is number three captaincy choice.
And who is your FPL captain?
Let us know on our Twitter.
What bookies odds say about GW10
As usual, we converted bookies odds into probabilities using our Odds to probability calculator, to assess the potential of gameweek 10.
Clean sheet odds for GW10
Manchester City (54 %) is the only team with a probability of clean sheet higher than 50 %. Bookies also favor Chelsea (49 %) and Liverpool (48 %) to keep a clean sheet in GW10.
Bookies expect 5.29 clean sheets in gameweek 10. In last season, we were used to a rate of 5.89 per clean sheets gameweek. This season we have seen clean sheets at the rate of 5.88 clean sheets per gameweek.
We can say we are no longer in a phase of defensive overperformance. Lack of clean sheets in the last few gameweek means that the number of average clean sheets per game returned to the mean.
Liverpool overperformed their defensive expectations the most from all teams. The Reds should have kept 3.4 clean sheets instead of 6 according to our expected clean sheets table.
Manchester United underperformed their defensive expectations the most from all teams. They should have kept 3.23 clean sheets instead of 1 according to our expected clean sheets table.
You can see the expected clean sheets table and clean sheet odds for all Premier League teams here.
Goalscoring odds for GW10
It is no longer a battle between Salah and Ronaldo for the spot of the most likely goalscorer in a given gameweek.
Salah is the clear winner in FPL GW10 – bookies assigned 52 % of him scoring.
Jota, Mané, and City boys follow Salah in our goalscoring odds table.
You can look at all most likely GW10 goalscorers here.
FPL GW10 Team - scout selection
Now let’s look at our FPL team for GW10. Salah is our GW10 captain.
5 m | EVE (H)
7.6 m | BHA (H)
6.4 m | CRY (H)
5.8 m | NEW (A)
4.4 m | WAT (H)
12.9 m | BHA (H)
10.2 m | MUN (H)
8.1 m | CRY (H)
7.5 m | NEW (A)
8.2 m | AVL (A)
6.6 m | BUR (A)
Hopefully, our tips will help you get better insight before the start of GW10 and that you gathered some useful information before the deadline.
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Good luck in FPL GW10!
Further reading: FPL Tips for success