Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 7 is here and it is the first double gameweek of the season, when Luton and Burnley play twice.
Here are our FPL GW7 Tips with the best picks, fixtures, transfer targets, odds, captain picks, and team selection.
1. Fantasy Premier League Double Gameweek 7 Tips
Double gameweek advice: It is OK if you go with zero or just one Burnley or Luton player into double gameweek 7. Do not try to squeeze in too many Luton and Burnley players into your team, it could weaken your squad in the long run.
But if you have Kaboré, Bell or Morris in your team, play them in double gameweek.
Read more: When is the next double gameweek in FPL?
Burnley has not really shown much this season. When we look at the data before GW7, they created the least xG of all teams this season according to Understat. So attacking-wise, they do not create a lot of chances, so do not expect many attacking returns from them in the double gameweek 7.
Defensively, it was a bit better, Burnley is sitting in the middle of the table for xG conceded, although they play one game less than other teams (apart from Luton).
Considering this, we are avoiding Burnley players for Double Gameweek 7. But if you still want to consider some of their players, check our article: Which Burnley players to consider in Double Gameweek 7.
Similar to Burnley, Luton has not really shown much this season. When we look at the data before GW7, they have the 5th lowest xG of all teams this season according to Understat. So attacking-wise, they do not create a lot of chances, so do not expect many attacking returns from them either. But still, it’s a bit better than Burnley.
Defensively, they are 6th worst for xG conceded despite playing one game less than other teams (apart from Burnley), so do not expect clean sheets from their cheap defenders.
If you want to pick some of their players, pick Bell and Morris. Read more Best Luton players to consider in Double Gameweek 7.
Gameweek 7 Talking Points
- If you have many flagged, injured, and suspended players, it is okay to wildcard in GW7. Or if you have 2 free transfers, you could try to sort things out by doing a “mini-wildcard” with 3 transfers.
2. Key players to own and transfer targets for FPL GW7
- Haaland – captain option in almost any gameweek – Wolves are the worst in xG conceded according to Understat this season, Haaland could get haul against them.
- Mbeumo/Wissa – keep them if you have them, give them few more chances until GW9
- Fernandes – Key player for United.
- Maddison – key man for Spurs
- Newcastle defender – Schar/Trippier/Botman/Pope
- Alvarez – blanked only twice this season, he looks to be second best Manchester City player to own this season
- Salah – Liverpool assets are overlooked, but no team has a better fixture run up to GW12 than them. There could be plenty of goals for the Reds in that period and perhaps even a few clean sheets.
- Ward-Prowse/Bowen – improved fixtures for West Ham
- Morris – double gameweek punt for GW7
3. Fixtures to target in Gameweek 7
In which fixtures we could expect a lot of fantasy points? These are the fixtures to target in Gameweek 7 according to bookies odds.
- Newcastle vs. Burnley: The Magpies 73 % to win, 44 % to score 2.5+ goals
- Wolves vs. Manchester City: Ctizens 71 % to win, 43 % to score 2.5+ goals
- West Ham vs. Sheffield: West Ham 65 % to win, 35 % to score 2.5+ goal
- Bournemouth vs. Arsenal: The Gunners 63 % to win, 39 % to score 2.5+ goal
4. Watchlists: Best players to pick in Double Gameweek 7 and beyond
We also looked at players from each position: goalkeepers, defenders, midfielders, and forwards.
We examine which players are best picks in each price bracket: budget enablers, midpriced picks, and premium options. Check our watchlists here:
- Best FPL goalkeepers to pick in Double Gameweek 7 (Watchlist)
- Best FPL defenders to pick in Double Gameweek 7 (Watchlist)
- Best FPL midfielders to pick in Double Gameweek 7 (Watchlist)
- Best FPL forwards to pick in Double Gameweek 7 (Watchlist)
- FPL Differential Picks for Double Gameweek 7 and Beyond
5. Best captain pick in FPL GW7
We will keep the captaincy section short.
Who is the best captain in Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 7?
We think Haaland is the best captaincy option in GW7. Wolves conceded the second most xG from all teams this season, that is definitely a stat to consider when making a captaincy decision. Haaland is the safe captaincy pick given his ownership, he is a reliable FPL asset and has a good fixture.
If you want to go with a differential captain, consider Morris who has two fixtures in Gameweek 7.
Should you captain Morris in Double Gameweek 7?
Haaland vs. Morris dilemma. Who would have thought it would come to this in FPL. But here we are.
This depends on how much risk you are willing to take in DGW7. Let’s look at points per match, and xGI per match, this season for both players:
- Halaand: 8.5 points per match, 1.33xGI per match
- Morris: 5.2 points per match, 0.6xGI per match
So, Haaland has just one fixture, so his expected output based on historical data is 8.5 points and 1.33xGI in GW7.
On the other hand, Morris with two fixtures has an expected output of 5.2*2=10.4 points per two matches and 1.2xGI in Double Gameweek 7.
So looking at this from this point of view, there is a valid argument to captain Morris over Haaland.
With two matches in one gameweek, the points floor for Morris is also higher, and variance should not influence his output as much as if it was just one match.
So, the math is here for captaining Morris.
But do you really have that high risk tolerance that you would go against well-rested Haaland playing against the second worst defense in Premier League?
6. What bookies odds say about Gameweek 7
We converted bookies odds into probabilities using our Odds to probability calculator, to assess the potential of gameweek 7.
Clean sheet odds for GW7
Bookies favor Everton (47 %), Newcastle (44 %) and Manchester City (42 %) to most likely keep a clean sheet in GW7.
Double gameweek teams
|Team||Expected Clean Sheets||Probability of at least one CS||Probability of two CS|
|Burnley||0.36||34 %||2 %|
|Luton||0.4||36 %||3.8 %|
Expected clean sheets
Based on these odds, bookies expect 5.19 clean sheets in gameweek 7. In last season, we were used to a rate of 5.45 clean sheets per gameweek. So far this season we have seen 4.17 clean sheets per gameweek.
Due to correction in the number of clean sheets: Fulham, Aston Villa
Fulham overperformed their defensive expectations the most of all teams. They should have kept 1.14 clean sheets instead of 3 according to our expected clean sheets table.
Due to an improvement in the number of clean sheets: Brighton, Everton
Brighton underperformed their defensive expectations the most from all teams. They should have kept 1.92 clean sheets instead of 0 according to our expected clean sheets table.
You can see the expected clean sheets table and clean sheet odds for all Premier League teams here.
Goalscoring odds for GW7
As usual, Haaland leads the table for anytime goalscorer odds in GW7. He is followed by Wilson and Isak. Check all odds here: Premier League Goalsocring Odds.
7. Using Chips in Double Gameweek 7
Wildcard, Free Hit – save them for later
There is some potential to use wildcard or free hit in double gameweek 7, although we think these chips will be more valuable later. We think it is better to navigate Double Gameweek 7 with free transfers and if you want to wildcard around this time, use it in GW8, GW9 or GW10.
But if you are keen on using some these chips in DGW7, here are our teams for inspiration:
Bench Boost – if you have benching headache and many double gameweek players, go for it
On the other hand, double gameweek 7 could be good for bench boost but only for managers, who have all 15 starters in their team, and who have 3-4 double gameweek players for gameweek 7. That way you will likely have a benching headache. You will want to play your great single gameweek players but also double gameweek bench fodders.
Using bench boost would sort your benching headache.
8. FPL Gameweek 7 Team selection
Now let’s look at our FPL team selection for Gameweek 7. Haaland is our GW7 captain.
9. Fantasy Premier League Tips
Find more tips, strategies and picks for Fantasy Premier League in these articles:
- Beginner? Read our guide: How to play Fantasy Premier League
- Confused about the rules? Read the Official rules of the game or check our FAQs
- Want to beat your mini-league rivals? This article is for you: 7 Key Tips for Fantasy Premier League Success
- Interested in improving your decision-making process when picking players to your fantasy team? Check out Books that will help you to improve your FPL skills
We hope our FPL GW7 tips helped you to gather some useful information before the Double Gameweek 7 deadline.
Feel free to JOIN our Fantasy Football Reports mini-league by clicking this link or using our league code ti56kl.
Good luck in FPL GW7!