FPL GW7 Tips

Gameweek 7 in Fantasy Premier League is going to be brutal. A lot of injuries, a lot of uncertainties about players, and some popular FPL assets from Liverpool and Manchester City cancel each other out as they met in one fixture. 

This is going to be one of the toughest gameweek so far with a very high variance. There is a lot to gain and a lot to lose…

So, let’s move to our FPL GW7 Tips.

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FPL GW7 Tips

Key notes for GW7

Let’s start with key notes for FPL GW7. We use xG and xA in our analysis. If you are not sure what those stats mean, read our article about expected goals.

Player notes

  • Antonio, Salah & Mané has the most shots (25) from all players. This trio is also top for xG this season
  • Salah has the most shots on target from all players (15) followed by Sarr (11) and Antonio (11)
  • Toney (2.87), Fernandes (2.59) and Saint-Maximin (2.57) are top for xA this season

Team notes

  • Worst defenses: Norwich, Leeds, Newcastle (in that order – Norwich the most) conceded the most xG this season
  • Best defenses: City, Brentford, Everton conceded the fewest xG this season
  • Worst attacks: Norwich, Tottenham and Watford accumulated the fewest xG this season
  • Best attacks: Liverpool, Man City, Man United accumulated highest xG this season

Wildcard talk

Note: Stars are aligning for the perfect time to use the first wildcard. A lot of injuries, fixture swing, international break… And we have 6 weeks of data available about this season. The time between GW7 and GW8 is probably the best time to use the wildcard if your team is in a bad shape.

However, if you have a lot of injuries already, use your wildcard right know before GW7. If your team is OK for GW7, use your wildcard before GW8. 

Team strength analysis

Aleksei took a closer look at team strengths in his regular team report analysis. He found out, which teams made improvements in their strength and which lowered their strength. 

Changes in team strength from the previous week according to Aleksei’s model:

  • Attacking improvement: Brentford, Crystal Palace, Leicester, Newcastle
  • Attacking worsening: Aston Villa, Chelsea, Wolves
  • Defensive improvement: Crystal Palace, Leicester
  • Defensive worsening: Aston Villa, Liverpool

Aleksei also used his model to find out which teams have the best attacking fixtures ahead, and which teams have the best defensive schedule ahead.

Make sure to check his full team report from gw6 here.

Who is the best captain in FPL GW7

We will keep the captaincy section short.

If you would like to know more about the process we use to select the captain every gameweek, read our article: How to pick the right captain in FPL?

According to this decision-making process, we think Romelu Lukaku is the best captain in FPL GW7.

Son is our number two, and Ronaldo is number three. 

And who is your FPL captain?

Let us know on our Twitter.

What bookies odds say about GW7

As usual, we converted bookies odds into probabilities using our Odds to probability calculator, to assess the potential of gameweek 7.

Clean sheet odds for GW7

There is no team with a probability of a clean sheet in GW7 higher than 50 %. Bookies favor Chelsea (47 %) and Manchester United (45 %) to keep a clean sheet in GW7.

Bookies expect 5.25 clean sheets in gameweek 7. In last season, we were used to a rate of 5.89 per clean sheets gameweek. This season we have seen clean sheets at the rate of 6.16 clean sheets per gameweek. We can say we are seeing more clean sheets than usual. 

Bookies’ odds agree. According to our expected clean sheets table, we should have seen 33.25 clean sheets, however we saw 37 clean sheets. We are still in the phase of defensive overperformance. The number of clean sheets per gameweek should return to the mean over the season. 

Understat’s xG data supports this assumption. This season we have seen 152 goals from 174,1 xG, which means we should have seen more goals.

Manchester City overperformed their defensive expectations the most from all teams. Citizens should have kept 2.68 clean sheets instead of 5 according to our expected clean sheets table.

Watford underperformed their defensive expectations the most from all teams. They should have kept 1.36 clean sheets instead of 0 according to our expected clean sheets table.

You can see the expected clean sheets table and clean sheet odds for all Premier League teams here.

Goalscoring odds for GW7

Another gameweek, another time when Ronaldo leads the anytime goalscorer odds in Premier League. The probability of him scoring is 52 %. He is closely followed by Lukaku with 50 %.

We have not seen much of Harry Kane this season so far, but he is the third most likely scorer this week with a 46 % probability. 

You can look at all most likely GW7 goalscorers here.

 

FPL GW7 Team - scout selection

Now let’s look at our FPL team for GW7. Lukaku is our GW7 captain.

Goalkeeper

Pope

5.4 m | NOR (H)

Defence

Azpilicueta

6 m | SOU (H)

Rudiger

5.7 m | SOU (H)

Pereira

5.5 m | CRY (A)

Saiss

5.0 m | NEW (H)

Midfield

Salah (VC)

12.6 m | CRY (H)

Sarr

6.3 m | LEE (A)

Raphinha

6.5 m | WAT (H)

Attack

Lukaku (C)

11.7 m | SOU (H)

Antonio

8 m | BRE (H)

Jimenez

7.5 m | NEW (H)

Conclusion

We hope our FPL GW7 tips helped you to gather some useful information before the deadline.

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Good luck in FPL GW7!

Further reading: FPL Tips for success

Matej Šuľan

Fantasy Football enthusiast with two top 1k finishes in FPL. Best FPL overall rank: 119th in 2019/20 season. Four top 500 finishes in UCL Fantasy, best overall rank: 23rd in 2018/19 season. Founder of Fantasy Football Reports.