FPL GW7 Tips: How to pick the right captain?

A big variance and an unpredictability of single gameweeks of new Fantasy Premier League season continue as we started previous round with Patrick Bamford’s hattrick.

It shows us how a patience with some FPL assets (rather than transferring them in and out) could be a vital part of your FPL strategy this season.

With our FPL Tips for GW7 we are going to focus on how to pick the best captain, the best captain pick for GW7, differential and scout selection.

Hopefully, our tips will help you to gain better insight about the upcoming gameweek and to beat the unpredictability (that sometimes turns into complete chaos) that we are witnessing in this FPL season.

Let’s dive in.

Tips for FPL GW7

How to pick the right captain in FPL?

I did not plan to start this gameweek preview differently. However, after writing 7 Key FPL Tips for Success, I realized that I did not talk about the captaincy in that article.

And the captaincy is one of the most important things for success in Fantasy Premier League. I have a lot in my mind about this topic, so I decided to include few of my ideas in tips for GW7.

So far, our number one captain picks are averaging 17.66 points per gameweek (8.83 extra points). We are going to present you best three picks for GW7 as usual, but later in the article. Firstly, I want to talk about the process of selecting a captain little bit.

We always look at fixtures at first, and only after determining stand out fixture for current gameweek. Then we pick the best captaincy options from those fixtures based on their form, underlying statistics from Understat, player’s history and other factors.

So, how to pick the best captain in Fantasy Premier League?

  1. 1. Set standout fixtures for the captaincy
  2. 2. Avoid the information overload
  3. 3. Do you due diligence
  4. 4. Pick a captain and stick to him
Let’s take a closer look at each one. 

1. Set standout fixtures in current gameweek

We identify following matches as standout fixtures for the captaincy in GW7:

  • Sheffield United vs Manchester City
  • Brighton vs. Tottenham
  • Liverpool vs. West Ham

Those fixtures look very nice and many players from those teams are great captaincy contenders. De Bruyne, Sterling, Son, Kane, Salah, Mané.

But how to make the critical decision and pick just one, only one, that you will put the armband on?

2. Avoid the information overload

Many times, when we have so many good captaincy options, we, FPL managers, face an information overload and we overthink it.

However, at the end of the gameweek it may not matter, because all of those players may end up with similar amount of points.

The information overload is something that you want to avoid in the FPL. So do not put too much time into switching the captaincy from one player to another and so on.

3. Do your due diligence

Do your due diligence, look at the stats, the fixtures, the history, and come up with the winner, the one you will put an armband on.

And stick to your decision unless initial conditions change.

If initial conditions change, for example, some key player gets injured, you can repeat the process and come up with solution regarding new initial conditions.

4. Pick a captain and stick to him unless..

If there is no change in initial conditions, just stick with your decision. 

It will safe you a lot of time that you can spend on solving other FPL issues or to forget about FPL for a little bit until next gameweek starts

There is one more thing I would like to mention regarding the captain selection. Some people may say that when picking a right captain, you should “go with your guts”. In my opinion, that is the worst approach for selecting the best captain.

Let me explain.

Imagine that you want to invest in stocks, and your financial advisor tells you, that you should buy the one stock that he has a good feeling about.

He does not do his research, no fundamental and technical analysis, but he has the feelings that this is THE stock and that this time it will work out. Would you buy it? Would you trust him? Of course not.

“Guts” and feelings will never bring you success in the financial market and neither in the FPL. Regarding the stock trading, doing emotional decisions only lead to blowing up your account and losing money. Unfortunately, I know what I am talking about.

That is why having a stone discipline, a strategy and a system will always pay off in the long run when selecting your captain.

And in the long run it also helps you to beat all those FPL managers who do decision based on their guts. Sometimes they are correct when they captain Calumn Wilson for his 16 pts halls. But this decision – that brought them these 16 points – is the same kind of a decision that will bring them 1 or 2 points return in some other gameweeks.

You want to focus on stable 6+ points captain returns every gameweek rather than shooting for the moon.

Now, after this long explanation of my ideas, here come our three captain tips for GW7, finally.

Best captain pick for GW7

Our three picks are the same as in the last gameweek. The initial conditions for GW7 are very similar to initial conditions for GW6. So, after we done our due diligence, we come up with the same output and same order of players like last week

Underlying statistics of our all three picks are great as we dig deeper into that last week. That’s why we try to keep it short this time.

 However, here is the table of their underlying number ahead of gameweek 7 of FPL.

PlayerShots per 90Key Passes per 90xG per 90xA per 90
Son2.642.830.580.33
Sterling2.431.420.30.18
Salah4.832.830.710.32
Mane4.082.040.80.22

Source: Understat

Also, you can compare the underlying numbers of opponent teams of our captain picks in the following table.

PlayerGoals concededxG against
Brighton126.76
Sheffield United98.31
West Ham86.5

Source: Understat

3. Son Heung-Min (BHA (H))

Again, we could include Harry Kane to our captain picks too, but we always prefer a midfielder rather than a forward for captaincy.

Spurs face Brighton who were a bit unlucky in previous gameweeks when conceded 12 goals from only 6.76 xG against.

It suggests that it could be low scoring match with 1 or 2 Spurs goals. Son is the second top-scorer of this FPL season. His finishing abilities are very clinical, so will not need a lot of chances to find the back of the net behind Matt Ryan.

2. Raheem Sterling (SHU (A))

Another excellent away fixture for Man City means that we again suggest Raheem Sterling as one of our captain picks.

However, with the Champions League games coming in a quick succession, the risk of Sterling being rotated is increasing.

But based on the historical data, Sterling is able deliver points even if he starts on the bench.

1. Mohamed Salah (WHU (H))

Great home fixture at Anfield against West Ham makes us to choose Salah as our number one captain pick.

We think that he is less likely to be rotated than Sterling, as he played only 59 minutes in the first Matchday of the Champions League.

If Salah is going to start on the bench some game, the home game against Midtjylland in the second Matchday of Champions league looks like the one when it could happen.

Our differential captain is, just as last week, Sadio Mane who, in our opinion, has very similar expected output for GW7 as Mohamed Salah. We wrote a lot about the comparison of those two last week.

Differential pick

Sergio Reguilón (BHA (H))

Spurs left back is currently sitting in only 3.6 % of FPL squads.

Reguilón has already managed to register one attacking return in his first three games for Spurs. His underlying number from those games are promising and it highlighted is assist potential.

He has 2.5 key passes and 0.4 expected assists per 90 minutes, great numbers for a defender.

Spurs have very nice two fixtures against Brighton and West Bromwich in the upcoming two gameweeks.

Hopefully, they will finally manage to keep at least one clean sheet in those two matches. In addition, based on his stats, Sergio Reguilón could be involved in at least one goal in this short time period.

Scout picks for GW7

At the end, let’s look at our scout picks for gameweek 7.

As we said in the captaincy section of the article, the initial condition from previous gameweek have not change much. So, our scout picks are very similar like previous gameweek.

Goalkeeper

Martinéz

4.8 m | SOU (H)

Defence

TAA

7.4 m | WHU (H)

Robertson

7.1 m | WHU(H)

Reguilón

5.6 m | BHA (H)

Saiss

5.2 m | CRY (H)

Midfield

Salah (C)

12.4 m | WHU (H)

Sterling

11.6 m | SHU (A)

Son

9.4 m | BHA (H)

Grealish

7.2 m | SOU (H)

Attack

Watkins

6 m | SOU (H)

Mitrovič

5.8 m | BHA (H)

Conclusion

We will bring you clean sheet odds very soon, when we have odds available. Do not forget that, again, the Fantasy Premier League deadline for GW7 is on Friday, so set up your FPL squad before that. Good luck!