FPL GW6 Tips

The fifth gameweek of Fantasy Premier League was a frustrating one for some FPL managers. However, there are still some of them who did exceptionally well – especially those with Sarr and Rudiger. Nevertheless, keep the eye on the ball and move on to the next gameweek. 

Here are our FPL GW6 Tips.

FPL GW6 Tips

Key notes for GW6

Let’s start with key notes for GW6 of Fantasy Premier League. We use xG and xA in our analysis. If you are not sure what those stats mean, read our article about expected goals.

Player notes

  • Mané and Salah lead the xG table of this season with 4.12 xG and 3.54 xG respectively. The both lead shots table with 24 and 22 shots respectively.
  • With 3.32 xG Ronaldo is 4th for xG and 2nd for Non-Penalty xG this season despite playing only 2 games
  • Despite a no-show in GW5 TAA has still the highest xA (2.51) among all players this season so far. Followed by Fernandes, Jesus, and Toney
  • Toney is showing that he could be a real deal: 12 shots, 7 key passes, 1.62 xG, and 1.62 xA so far this season. 
  • Sarr is 2nd for shots on target (9) this season, only Salah has more (13)

Team notes

  • Worst defenses: Leeds, Arsenal, and Newcastle (in that order) conceded the most xG this season
  • Best defenses: City, Brentford, Liverpool conceded the fewest xG this season
  • Worst attacks: Leicester, Tottenham and Norwich accumulated the fewest xG this season. Brentford, Tottenham, and Leicester have the smallest number of shots. 
  • Best attacks: Liverpool, City, Man United accumulated the highest xG this season. Wolves, City, and Liverpool have the highest number of shots this season

Aleksei made a team report and fixture analysis based on xG data. Would you like to know which teams have the best defensive and offensive fixtures ahead? You can check his GW5 Team Report here.

What bookies odds say about GW6

As usual, we converted bookies odds into probabilities using our Odds to probability calculator to assess the potential of gameweek 6.

Clean sheet odds for GW6

There is no team with a probability of a clean sheet higher than 50 %, so it is going to be harder to predict where to look for clean sheets. Bookies favor Leicester (45 %), Liverpool (44 %), Everton (42 %) and Manchester United (41 %) to be the most likely sources of clean sheets. 

Based on these odds, bookies expect 5.45 clean sheets in gameweek 6. In last season, we were used to a rate of 5.89 per clean sheets gameweek. So far this season we have seen 6.6 clean sheets per gameweek.

We can say we are in a period of defensive overperformance because we have seen more clean sheets than we should have. This is also confirmed by our Expected Clean Sheets table. In GW1-GW5 we saw 33 clean sheets, while this number should be only 27.8.

Is the regression to the mean coming? Is it time to dump overperforming defenders who kept more clean sheets than they should have, switch from 442 to 343, and focus more on the attack?

Or will the phase of defensive overperformance continue just as the stock market bubble?

We do not know. No one knows.

But the attentive FPL managers should be aware of the fact of the defensive overperformance and that the number of clean sheets we are currently witnessing is highly likely unsustainable in the long run.

You can see the expected clean sheets table and clean sheet odds for all Premier League teams here.

Goalscoring odds for GW6

Ronaldo (57 %) leads the pack again with the highest goalscoring odds for GW 6. He is closely followed by Salah (43 %) which is a typical picture of the last gameweeks. Vardy (42 %) occupies the 3rd spot in our goalscoring odds table.

You can look at all most likely GW6 goalscorers here.

 

FPL GW6 Team - scout selection

Now let’s look at our FPL team for GW6. 

Goalkeeper

Schmiechel

5.0 m | BUR (H)

Defence

TAA

7.6 m | BRE (A)

Shaw

5.5 m | AVL (H)

Pereira

5.5 m | BUR (H)

Livramento

4.2 m | WOL (H)

Midfield

Salah (VC)

12.6 m | BRE (A)

Greenwood

7.7 m | AVL (H)

Sarr

6.1 m | NEW (H)

Attack

Ronaldo (C)

12.7 m | AVL (H)

Antonio

7.9 m | LEE (A)

Bamford

8.0 m | WHU (H)

Conclusion

We hope our FPL GW6 tips helped you to gather some useful information before the deadline.

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Good luck in FPL GW6!