FPL GW4 Tips

fpl gw4 tips

The first three gameweeks of the season are now over and we are going to focus our energy on the upcoming Fantasy Premier League gameweek. Usually, we have an international break before GW4, but not during this season.

Gameweeks will go in quick succession, so there is not a lot of time to think about our squads. We have to react quickly to all circumstances. 

So, let’s jump on our FPL GW4 Tips.

Read more: 4 Books that will help you improve your FPL skills

  • Leeds is very impressive. Rodrigo or Harrison should be your number one transfer targets
  • Keep faith in Liverpool players, especially in their defenders. Clean sheets and attacking points for their fullback are coming. We cannot predict when they score big, but we know they will. Just keep Robertson or (and) TAA and do not worry about them
  • It is time to bring Perišič to our teams. Although he had zero shots on targets, he accumulated 5 key passes and 2 assists so far this season in limited minutes. He will be benched sometimes, but his potential is just very high. However, make sure you have solid bench in your FPL team.
  • We have 3 gameweeks during 8 days. Prepare your squad for surprising benchings and potential injuries. There is going to be very busy schedule until the World Cup 2022 start
  • If you are on Iversen and Ward double up – it is time to sell Iversen. Best Iversen replacements: Ramsdale, Ederson, Sanches (in that order)
  • If you have Saka, keep him. The fixtures are great. Focus on other issues in your FPL team.

FPL GW3 weekly summary: eye test + players who impressed

Which players did well in GW3, which impressed and which disappointed? Check Jordan’s detailed summary of the previous gameweek in the article: FPL GW3 Weekly Summary: Eye Test + players who impressed

Best captain pick for GW4

We narrowed down our list of captaincy picks to three players using our Captaincy Index.

You can read our full captaincy analysis for GW4 here.

According to the Captaincy Index, Salah is the best captain in GW4.

Haaland is the number 2 captaincy pick and De Bruyne number 3 captaincy pick. 

What bookies odds say about GW4

As usual, we converted bookies odds into probabilities using our Odds to probability calculator, to assess the potential of gameweek 4.

Clean sheet odds for GW4

Bookies assigned the highest probability of a clean sheet to Liverpool – 63%. The Reds are followed by Manchester City, Chelsea, Tottenham and Arsenal

So this is where we should be looking for clean sheets in the next round of FPL.

Bookies expect 5.36 clean sheets in gameweek 4. In last season, we were used to a rate of 5.58 per clean sheets gameweek. This season so far, we have seen clean sheets at the rate of 5.33 clean sheets per gameweek.

Newcastle and Brighton are due to the correction in their clean sheet count, we expect both teams to concede goals in the upcoming gameweeks.

Due to correction in the number of clean sheets: Newcastle, Brighton

Brighton overperformed their defensive expectations the most of all teams. They should have kept 0.68 clean sheets instead of 2 according to our expected clean sheets table.

Due to an improvement in the number of clean sheets: Liverpool, Aston Villa

Liverpool underperformed their defensive expectations the most from all teams. The Reds should have kept 1.35 clean sheets instead of 0 according to our expected clean sheets table.

You can see the expected clean sheets table and clean sheet odds for all Premier League teams here.

Goalscoring odds for GW4

Haaland (57 %) and Salah(52 %) dominate the goalscoring odds for GW4. They are closely followed by Jesus and Kane.

These are the players that bookies expect to most likely score in GW4.

You can look at all most likely GW4 goalscorers here.

FPL GW4 Team

We are not on wildcard this week (we consider the GW8 as a better time), but if we were, this would be our GW4 wildcard team.

You can check it in the separate article: FPL GW4 Wildcard Team.

Conclusion

We hope our FPL GW4 tips helped you to gather some useful information before the deadline.

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Good luck in FPL GW4!

Matej Šuľan

Fantasy Football enthusiast with two top 1k finishes in FPL. Best FPL overall rank: 119th in 2019/20 season. Five top 500 finishes in UCL Fantasy, best overall rank: 23rd in 2018/19 season. Founder of Fantasy Football Reports.