Best captain pick for GW3
3. Kevin De Bruyne (LEI (H))
The top scorer from the last season is a captaincy option again. Manchester City face Leicester on Sunday and Kevin De Bruyne will be very popular captain pick among FPL managers. His home form from last season plays in his favor. 148 of his 251 FPL points came in home games, that’s 59 percent and a very strong argument to trust him with an armband.
Based on clean sheet odds, bookies assign just 6 percent probability to Leicester to keep a clean sheet, so they expect Man City to score with 94 percent probability. And history shows that when Man City scores at Etihad Stadium, Kevin De Bruyne is often involved.
2. Mohamed Salah (ARS (H))
Salah has started season with very impressive performance against Leeds, but then has been outshined by Mané in the match against Chelsea. In GW3 it could be Salah’s turn again. Despite not founding the back of the net behind Kepa, he was very active in that game with 4 shots of 0.23 xG and 5 key passes of 0.23 xA.
Liverpool’s opponent, Arsenal, did not shown much against West Ham. Despite the 2-1 win, Hammers beat Arsenal on xG 2.06-1.33 what is very encouraging for Salah captainers. If Arsenal allowed West Ham to create chances of 2.06 xG total, how many chances they will Liverpool get against them?
1. Son Heung Min (NEW(H))
Son was the hero of the previous gameweek. 4 goals and 24 points hauls was a hard punishment for all those managers who sold him after the uninspiring performance against Everton. And it was a big reward for those who have kept faith in him. Son converted all his four shots against Southampton, what shows how clinical finisher he is.
Yes, he outperformed his xG by a margin (4 goals from 1.35 xG) but he has been constantly outperforming his xG stats since 2016/17. That suggests that he is very good finisher and he does not need many chances. Spurs face Newcastle who were struggling defensively against Brighton in the previous gameweek. Son-Heung Min could easily repeat his amazing performance against them.
Differential captain: Werner (WBA (A))
We expect that De Bruyne, Salah and Son will be very popular captain picks in GW3. There is one pick, we have for you. It’s highly owned player, but we do not think many FPL managers are looking to give him an armband.
Only one assist in first two matches was a disappointment for many managers who have started season with Werner in their FPL squad. However, Chelsea play against West Bromwich who were defensively terrible in first two games. They conceded 8 goals and 7.12 xG against what is far most from all teams. That’s a perfect game for Werner to finally find his form.
Under the radar players
Podence (WHU (A))
A departure of Diogo Jota from Wolves to Liverpool turned Daniel Podence into fantasy pick worth a consideration. The 5.5m midfielder is currently only 1 percent owned, but he could become a regular started for Wolves now.
Podence has already assisted Jimenez two goals in first two gameweeks of the season. During the last season he managed to score 1 goal and register 1 assist in just 285 minutes of game time. He is a risky option, but he could reward few managers who will own him in the match against West Ham in GW3 and in many after that for a very low price.
Jack Grealish (FUL (A))
Due to the Aston Villa blank in GW1, Jack Grealish belongs to Under the radar players with very low ownership around 10 percent. He was great FPL asset last season and he could be great asset this season, too. His price has risen only by 1.0 million what is not a big difference.
Aston Villa play against Fulham in the GW3 and similarly to West Brom, Fulham have been very uninspiring defensively so far and have conceded 7 goals. Grealish is a talisman for Villa and if they score against Fulham, he should be involved.
Clean sheet odds for GW3
Just as always, we converted bookies odds into probabilities of keeping a clean sheet. Bookmakers assign the highest probability of a clean sheet to Chelsea, Spurs and Man City, so defenders from these teams should do well in GW3.
The expected number of clean sheets in the third gameweek of the season is 5.46. Last season we had 5.45 clean sheets per gameweek, so bookies are expecting a gameweek with a higher number of clean sheets than usual after the goal fest in the last round.
If you want to know how to convert bookies odds to probabilities, visit our Odds to Probability calculator.
|Team||Probability of CS|
|Man City||39 %|
|Man United||36 %|
|West Ham||26 %|
|Aston Villa||25 %|
|Crystal Palace||24 %|
|West Brom||10 %|
Scout selection for GW3
6 m | LEI (H)
7.5 m | ARS (H)
6 m | NEW (H)
5 m | WBA (A)
5 m | WHU (A)
9 m | NEW (H)
12.1 m | ARS (H)
9.5 m | BHA (A)
7 m | FUL (A)
9.5 m | WBA (A)
6 m | AVL (H)
We selected 11 players within the 83.5m into our scout squad for GW3.
Thank to the high probability of a clean sheet and regular starting spot, Ederson is the main man in goal.
Alexander Arnold is very offensive this season, too, and we would not dare to not include him in our selection. Doherty, James and Saiss have high probability of a clean sheet in the next gameweek with combination of solid attacking threat.
Heung Min Son is our captain and Salah vice-captain. We fancy Manchester United to bounce back from the defeat against Crystal Palace and Marcus Rashford still represents great value among their players. Grealish is our differential who could do well against Fulham defense.
The last two spots in our squads belongs to Werner and Fulham’s talisman Mitrovič.
We hope are short guide and FPL tips helped you to get better picture about upcoming gameweek 3. Our last advice is, do not chase last gameweek’s points, stick to your strategy and manage your team wisely.