FPL GW3 Tips

The second gameweek of Fantasy Premier League brought us some surprises (Salah, Fernandes blanks..) and it was not as high-scoring as the first one. 

A lot of FPL managers that did exceptionally well in the GW1 struggled in GW2. But that is how the game works: joy and disappointment repeat over and over again.

If you are disappointed about your GW2 score, just look at your total points score from both gameweeks and ask yourself: If someone told me before GW1 that I was going to have such a high score after GW2 would I take it? 

I think most of you would.

So, it is time to concentrate our effort on gameweek 3. 

Let’s jump on our FPL GW3 Tips.

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FPL GW3 Tips

Best of the best in GW2

At first, let’s take a closer look at players’ statistics from GW2. 

Who impressed?

In our report, we use data about shots and expected goals from Understat. If you are not sure what expected goals are, make sure to read our article about xG here

No player registered a higher xG in the second gameweek of FPL as Romelu Lukaku (1.73). He also added 0.54 xA, making his total expected involvement 2.27 in the GW2. He underperformed his underlying numbers against Arsenal, and probably should have scored more than 8 FPL points. Lukaku also registered 8 shots – more than any other player, and 3 key passes.

Only Michail Antonio got close to Lukaku’s superb underlying performance in the second gameweek of the season. Jamaican registered 1.32 xG (3rd from all players behind Lukaku and DCL), 0.45 xA, and 7 shots (2nd) turning these stats into the 16-point-haul. 

Dominic Calvert-Lewin continued in his fine form scoring 1 goal from 1.32 xG (2nd from all players in GW2). However, the majority of his xG came through the penalty. He has 4 shots in GW2 and also registered 0.11 xA. 

Liverpool winger Sadio Mané lead the xG stats from GW2 among midfielders, as he managed 6 shots worth of 1.15 xG.

Playing from the right wing, Gabriel Jesus registered 1.42 xA in GW2 – more than any other player. He turned into two assists and was one of the most creative City players in the game against Norwich. 

Mason Mount showed his creativity as well, he registered his second assist of the season from 1.41 xA (2nd). 

Best captain pick for GW3

There is no clear captaincy candidate in GW3, so we expect the captaincy to be spread around. We narrowed down our list of captaincy picks to three players using our usual decision-making process that is based rather on fixture than form.

You can read our full captaincy analysis for GW3 here.

These are three players we consider to three best captaincy candidates:

  • Vardy
  • Fernandes
  • Son

In our analysis, we picked Son as our number one captain.

However, a lot of people are looking to captain Antonio against Crystal Palace in GW3. We are not going to do that. Antonio simply does not fit into our decision-making process when we select a captain.

You can read more about why we are not backing Antonio as our captain at the end of our full captaincy analysis for GW3.

What bookies odds say about GW3

As usual, we converted bookies odds into probabilities using our Odds to probability calculator, to assess the potential of gameweek 3.

Clean sheet odds for GW3

Manchester City is the only team with a probability of a clean sheet higher than 50 % in GW3. Citizens are followed by Spurs, West Ham, and Manchester United

So this is where we should be looking for clean sheets in the next round of FPL.

Bookies expect 5.85 clean sheets in gameweek 3. In last season, we were used to a rate of 5.89 per clean sheets gameweek.

However, according to our Expected Clean Sheets table, two teams overperformed their clean sheets expectation in the first two gameweeks of the season: Spurs and Brentford. Both teams registered two clean sheets, while they both should have had only around 0.5 clean sheets at their account after the first two gameweeks according to bookies’ clean sheet odds.

Is the regression to mean coming? Will Spurs and Brentford finally concede in GW3?

You can see the expected clean sheets table and clean sheet odds for all Premier League teams here.

Goalscoring odds for GW3

Kane (53 %) and Heung Min Son (43 %) dominates the goalscoring odds for GW3. They are closely followed by Vardy, Antonio, Wilson, and City players.

These are the players that bookies expect to most likely score in GW3.

You can look at all most likely GW3 goalscorers here.

 

FPL GW3 Team - scout selection

Now let’s look at our FPL team for GW3. 

Goalkeeper

Lloris

5.5 m | WAT (H)

Defence

TAA

7.5 m | CHE (H)

Dias

6 m | ARS (H)

Cresswell

5.5 m | CRY (H)

Pereira

5.5 m | NOR (A)

Midfield

Son (C)

10 m | WAT (H)

Fernandes (VC)

12.1 m | WOL (A)

Benrahma

6.2 m | CRY (H)

Attack

Ings

8.1 m | WBA (A)

Antonio

7.7 m | CRY (H)

Calvert-Lewin

8.1 m | BHA (A)

Conclusion

We hope our FPL GW2 tips helped you to gather some useful information before the deadline.

After the press conferences, we will post our Premier League Predicted Line Ups as well, so do not forget to check it before the start of gameweek.

And join our Fantasy Football Reports League if you haven’t already with a league code of dwchch. Or click the auto-join here.

Good luck in FPL GW3!