Tips for FPL GW2: Best Captain Pick, Clean sheets odds and more.

First gameweek of new Fantasy Premier League season is now over. And it was chaotic gameweek full of surprises and disappointments too, just as expected. But there is one very important tip for you, FPL managers, from the very beginning of the article.

Keep your emotions in check. Do not make rage and emotional decisions. That would very likely hurt your score in the next round. Calm down, take a deep breath and use logic instead. From the mathematical point of view, the FPL is a chaotic system

The Chaos Theory shows us that chaotic systems can be predictable. But just for a while. Then randomness appears again. So do not let the randomness of first gameweek to disrupt your strategy you set up before the beginning of the season. And do not tear apart your team just to bring in some players that (maybe just randomly) did well last weekend.

After the important massage being said, lets continue to other FPL tips for GW 2.

Tips for FPL GW2

Best captain pick for GW 2

Our number one captain pick last week Mo Salah did well in the first gameweek of the season and scored a hattrick. However, Liverpool face Chelsea at Stanford bridge in GW 2 and Salah’s best strengths are at Anfield against non-top 6 teams. That’s why we did not include Salah among our top 3 captain picks for GW 2. But there are very exciting alternatives for captaincy.

3. Bruno Fernandes (CRY (H))

Manchester United had blank in GW1 that’s why many FPL managers had not included Man United players in their squad last week. But if you did (we recommended it in GW1 Preview), you have solid captain contender for gameweek 2 in your team. As a long-term pick from United players we favor Marcus Rashford. But as a captaincy option from their players we like their new talisman Bruno Fernandes the most.

Despite the fact we have not seen Manchester United play this season, we expect them to resume their strong home form from the end of last season. Bruno looks to be included in their every attack and he probably cemented his role as Man United main penalty taker what has increased his possible points ceiling and boosted his appeal as the GW 2 captain in the match against Crystal Palace.

2. Raheem Sterling (WOL (A))

Another team that missed first gameweek is Manchester City. And their team is full of great captaincy options. City play Wolves in their opening match of the season and last time those two teams met at Molineux Stadium, it was very open match with 5 goals (Wolves won 3-2). And Raheem Sterling scored both Manchester City goals.

Sterling was the most productive Manchester City player at the end of the last season, and we think he could replicate his form at the beginning of the new campaign. Sterling is very strong in away matches and last season, he registered 59 percent of his all FPL points on roads. If you want to captain Man City player in an away match, Sterling is your man.

1. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (WHU(H))

Aubameyang was very popular captain choice in the GW 1 and it will not be any different in GW 2. He scored 7 FPL points against Fulham rewarding those managers who trusted him with an armband. In the next round, Arsenal face West Ham who were far from impressive in their opening fixture against Newcastle.

According to our Flat Track Bully Index, Aubameyang does very well against oppositions with low FDR value (easy fixture). We expect him to exploit weaknesses in West Ham defense and we consider him to be the best captain pick for the upcoming Fantasy Premier League round.

Differential captain: Willian (WHU (H))

Arsenal new acquisition impressed in their opening game. Willian assisted 3 goals and hit the post from the free kick. That translated into his 14 points haul in GW 1. The majority of Arsenal attacks went through him. He had 3 shots on goal and made 4 key passes in that match.

If he can replicate this performance in the match against West Ham, then he can score another haul in terms of FPL points. He is currently less than 12 percent owned, so he could make a real difference for your score in the next round if he does well.

Under the radar players

Few players did well stats-wise in the first round but failed to score or register an assist. Some of them are very low owned and they could be viable differentials for the second gameweek.

Richarlison (WBA (H))

According to understat data, Richarlison produced 7 shots with total amount of 0.83 xG against Spurs. He was quite unlucky not to score. Everton face WBA in Saturday’s early kick off. West Bromwich conceded 2.96 xG of chances against Leicester, what is the second worst from all teams.

Richarlison is currently sitting in around 10 percent of FPL teams so he could provide you massive rank boost if he scores against WBA.

Marcus Rashford (CRY (H))

Although, Marcus Rashford did not feature in the first gameweek, he is the very definition of the under the radar pick. He is currently owned by 5 percent of managers. However, as we mentioned in the captaincy section, we consider Rashford to be best long-term pick with or without Bruno Fernandes in your FPL team.

Re-classified to midfielder, he could have 200 points season, just as Martial had last year. Bring him in early and gain an advantage over other FPL managers.

Clean sheet odds for GW 2

In order to take a closer look to the defense, we converted bookies odds into probabilities of a clean sheets in GW 2. It is Manchester United, Leicester and Leeds who are the most likely to not concede.

According to probabilities we should witness 5.45 clean sheets in the second gameweek, what is exact number as the average of clean sheets in all last season’s gameweeks. It means that bookies expect that there will be an average amount of clean sheets in the upcoming round.

TeamProbability of CS
Manchester United50 %
Leicester43 %
Leeds42 %
Everton40 %
Manchester City39 %
Arsenal39 %
Newcastle34 %
Aston Villa30 %
Brighton30 %
Spurs30 %
Sheffield United29 %
Liverpool25 %
Southampton24 %
Chelsea17 %
Burnley16 %
Fulham15 %
West Bromwich13 %
Wolves11 %
West Ham11 %
Crystal Palace8 %

Scout squad for GW 2

Based on information about stats from Understat and bookies odds of clean sheets, we constructed our Scout Squad for the upcoming FPL gameweek.

Goalkeeper

Meslier

4.5 m | FUL (H)

Defence

TAA

7.5 m | CHE (A)

Wan-Bissaka

5.5 m | CRY (H)

Digne

6 m | WBA (H)

Justin

5.0 m | BUR (H)

Midfield

Aubameyang (C)

12 m | WHU (H)

Fernandes

10.5 m | CRY (H)

Rashford

9.5 m | CRY (H)

Souček

5 m | ARS (A)

Attack

Richarlison

8 m | WBA (H)

Jimenez

8.5 m | MCY (H)

Meslier is our preferred keeper due to a high probability of clean sheet.

For the same reason Wan-Bissaka, Justin and Digne made it into our defense. Beside the high chances of keeping a clean sheet, they also offer attacking thread, just like Trent Alexander Arnold.

Aubameyang is our captain and he is partnered in the midfield with Manchester United duo Rashford and Fernandes. The last midfield spot belongs to Soucek who was quite attacking for West Ham in the first gameweek.

Raul Jimenez use to do very well against Man City and Richarlison should make some trouble to the WBA defense.

Conclusion

We hope our tips helped you to gather some useful information ahead of GW 2 deadline. Remember the tip from the very beginning: keep your emotion in check and you will do fine. You need to manage your FPL squad just like you would manage your Stock portfolio. And if you want to be profitable in the stock market, you need to eliminate your emotions from the decision making process. The same applies to FPL, too.