FPL GW3: Transfer Tips

Today we will assess players into different categories as we do each week:

  • First one would be “Players you still don’t own”: greatly performing players with high ownership that should be your transfer priority if you don’t have them.
  • Second one is “Differentials”: greatly performing players with under 10% ownership that you might want to bring in.
  • “Who to avoid” is our third category in which we will discuss players that are popular transfer, but you should strongly consider not to do it.
  • “Who to keep” is the category in which we look at the top transferred out players and decide which of them might be a keep instead of sell.
  • Fifth category is “Who to watch”. It consists of players that we don’t necessarily want right now, but want to keep an eye on for future transfers.
  • “Who to sell” is our final category of players that are highly owned, but should be disposed of in our opinion.

Also check out our FPL GW3 Tips article for the in-depth look on GW2 results and GW3 preparation.

Players you still don’t own

Players with more than 20% ownership that you probably need:

  • Son (MID, TOT, 10.1, 24.8%). Two nearest fixtures are Watford and Crystal Palace. Son was playing up front as a center forward, but he will probably move to the left again, now that Harry Kane has said that he will stay with Spurs.
  • Benrahma (MID, WHU, 6.2, 21.6%). Two nearest fixtures are Crystal Palace and Southampton. One of the top xI midfielder with 1.01 xG and 0.63 xA across first two matches. The only concern with Benrahma may be possible Lingard’s transfer to West Ham next week, but right now he’s on fire.
  • Antonio (FWD, WHU, 8.1, 40.1%). He has the most xG out of any FPL players with the total of 2.52 and he also managed to get 3 assists with just 0.89 xA.

Differentials

Players with less than 10% ownership that might become great assets soon:

  • Bergwijn (MID, TOT, 6.0, 0.9%). Has 1.2 xI from the first matches, which is actually greater than Son’s expected involvement.
  • Wilson (FWD, NEW, 7.5, 6.4%). Had 2 big chances from 5 shots in the box and 7 shots overall. Southampton next.
  • Mane (MID, LIV, 11.9, 3.6%). Mane punished those some 56k managers who transferred him out between the first two gameweeks. He made 6 shots in the second match against Burnley, which is more than Salah.

Who to avoid

Here are the players with 200k+ transfers in this week already:

  • Lukaku (FWD, CHE, 11.5, 20%) and James (DEF, CHE, 5.6, 10%). They are no doubt great value players and will often score big time. But they play Liverpool this week and then after Aston Villa next week they play Spurs and City. These are 3 very difficult games in next 4. Also, with Chelsea’s squad depth they can rotate players. So imagine if James and Lukaku will play all the tough matches, while Werner and Chalobah play easy Villa fixture.
  • Tsimikas (DEF, LIV, 4.1, 29.2%). This might very well be the last week for Tsimikas to play on the first team as Robertson seems to be ready to play. Liverpool also meet very dangerous Chelsea side with mentioned above Lukaku.
  • Ings (FWD, AVL, 8.1, 40.1%). Ings had only 3 shots, while one them was the penalty, which he clearly won’t take anymore if El Ghazi is on the pitch. Watkins return may fix things, but after this GW Villa also has tough calendar with Chelsea, Everton, United and Spurs ahead.
  • Bissouma (MID, BHA, 4.5, 14.9%). Bissouma made his first ever assist in the Premier League. He is a defensive-minded midfielder, who provides very little threat at the other end of the pitch. He is a playing bench fodder and not worth a transfer.

Who to keep

Here are the players from top 10 transferred out so far:

  • Toney (FWD, BRE, 6.5, 24.3%). Yes, he has not scored yet, but he has proven himself as a team’s talisman before. Brentford has Villa, Brighton and Wolves next.
  • Shaw (DEF, MUN, 5.5, 51%). United is top team for xG conceded and shots in box conceded in the league right now. But they have not managed to keep a single clean sheet. Surely that will change to their favor and Shaw has shown previously that he can score.
  • Salah (MID, LIV 12.6, 54.4%). Salah blanked only one time with the goal ruled out by VAR and he’s on people’s sell list! Sure, everyone want a Kane or Lukaku and Salah is the easy way to fund them, but we are talking about the man that scored like top 3 points each season for the past 4 seasons.

Who to watch

  • Lukaku (FWD, CHE, 11.5, 20%) and James (DEF, CHE, 5.6, 10%). Chelsea has great run of fixtures after GW6 and these two may be must haves.
  • Traore (MID, WOL, 6.0, 1.2%). Has the most joint total shots with 1.48 xG, which is the most out of any midfielder.
  • Mbeumo (MID, BRE, 5.5, 1.2%). Plays the closest position to the opposite goal. Has the same xG as Toney, but also attempts to assist.
  • Torres (MID, MCI, 7.0, 2.1%). If City don’t sign any striker this summer, he might very well play center forward on regular basis while also being midfielder with only 7.0 cost.

Who to sell

Here are the players that have high ownership, while also not doing much:

  • Barnes (MID, LEI, 6.9, 9.7%), Maddison (MID, LEI, 6.9, 7.8%) and Vardy (MID, LEI, 10.5, 15%) are not showing great numbers, especially Barnes, and Maddison wants a move to Arsenal. They have Norwich coming next, so you might want to give them their last shot.
  • Digne (DEF, EVE, 5.5, 15.3%). Everton keeps creating chances for the opposition, even if they can’t do it themselves. Digne is offering some potential assists, but with plenty of other options from great defensive sides, he might be a little overrated.

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