There is a hectic December period ahead. There are 9 Fantasy Premier League gameweeks in 35 days between 27 November and 1 January.
In average, that is 3.89 days of rest for teams between gameweeks. So, prepare your squad for potential rotation and injuries. That’s why in this preview we will pay special attention to bench management of your fantasy squad.
Let’s jump to our FPL GW13 Tips.
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FPL GW13 Tips
How to manage your bench during tough December schedule
December is one of the most important periods in FPL. In January, everything will be different in the overall ranking.
FPL Managers who got to the top 1K or top 10K mainly due to “lack” rather than “skill” might suffer a significant rank drop.
And skillful managers who were a bit behind in the ranking might finally start making some ground and moving upwards.
During this December period, your FPL season can make or break. Having a playing bench is going to be an important part of your FPL strategy during Christmas.
So, we prepared few tips and ideas how to manage your bench during this period
1. Do not overthink the rotation
The rotation and December in FPL are connected terms in the FPL Community. But there is one thing you must realize.
There is so little time to rest for the players that almost every player will be rotated. There will be unexpected benchings every gameweek.
Every one of your players might get benched. Make peace with that. Do not overthink it. Every FPL manager is in the same situation.
We all will find some of our players benched during this period.
You can miss out on a big portion of points if you try to avoid some players (like Sterling) only because you think they are rotation risk.
If a player (who is a good FPL asset) is a regular starter for his team, it does not matter if he gets benched once in 5 games.
He will score plenty of points in the other four games. Just do not miss out on opportunities due to fear of players being benched. Because he will be benched anyway.
Just pick the players you think that will score the most points.
2. Have playing bench, not strong bench
Yes, you need to play bench in this period. No, you do not need a strong bench. Focus on having 2 playing players on the bench of your FPL team.
You can forget about reserve keeper and 3rd place in your bench (it is extremely unlikely you will need them, so it does not worth the effort and wasted transfers or wildcards to bring playing players to that position).
3. Two points - that’s what you should expect from your bench player
In order to maximize expected output of your starting XI, your bench players should be 4.5 m (or less) players that are regularly scoring 2 points week and week out.
No, players over 4.5 million are not great bench options. You can never time when they score goals so you will likely end up with two points from them anyway.
That is not worth the extra 0.5 million over 4.5m players. You should rather use those 0.5 million elsewhere in your team to maximize the expected FPL points output of your starting XI.
4. Defender as the first sub
If you are not playing 5 at the back, your first sub should almost always be a 4.5 million defender.
Ideally low rotation risk centre back with green fixtures during Christmas. However, if he has really bad fixture like LIV (A) where he is likely to score 0 or 1 point, you can move 4.5 million midfielder like Romeu, Brownhill or Gilmour who is more likely to score 2 points to your first bench spot.
Even that we focus on getting 2 points from our bench players, having 4.5m defender as first sub will maximize the chances of getting occasional clean sheet points from your bench player.
This 4.5 million defender will be likely from non-top-6 team. In 2018/19 season, non-top-6 teams have kept 135 clean sheets in 38 gameweeks.
That’s 9.64 clean sheet per team. And that’s 0.25 clean sheets per non-top-6 team per gameweek. This is big simplification, but with having a 4.5 million defender as your first sub you still 25% probability of getting clean sheet points.
It is a higher probability than 4.5 million midfielder scoring a goal or registering an assist.
Of course, a defender can score 1 point instead of 2 when conceding 2 goals. That’s why you really want a defender with great fixtures during December period in your first bench spot.
And if the fixture is bad, you put your 4.5 m midfielder as your first sub to minimize the risk and ensure 2 points.
Key notes for GW13
Fixtures to target
These are fixtures to target in FPL Gameweek 13 according to the bookies odds.
- Liverpool: 75 % to win and 49 % to score 2.5 + goals
- Manchester City: 73 % to win and 46 % to score 2.5 + goals
- Arsenal: 65 % to win and 37 % to score 2.5 + goals
- Chelsea: 60 % to win and 29 % to score 2.5 + goals
- Leicester: 58 % to win and 32 % to score 2.5 + goals
Premier League Predicted Lineups for GW13
Who do we expect to start in FPL GW13? Check out our Premier League predicted lineups for GW13.
Who is the best captain in FPL GW13
We will keep the captaincy section short.
If you would like to know more about the process we use to select the captain every gameweek, read our article: How to pick the right captain in FPL?
According to this decision-making process, we think Salah is the best captain in FPL GW13.
Son is our number two, and Vardy is number three captain pick.
What bookies odds say about GW13
As usual, we converted bookies odds into probabilities using our Odds to probability calculator, to assess the potential of gameweek 13.
Clean sheet odds for GW13
Manchester City (44 %) has the highest chance of a clean sheet in GW13. Bookies also favor Chelsea (43 %) and Liverpool (42%) to keep a clean sheet in GW13.
Bookies expect 5.31 clean sheets in gameweek 13. In last season, we were used to a rate of 5.89 per clean sheets gameweek. This season we have seen clean sheets at the rate of 5.67 clean sheets per gameweek.
Southampton conceded a goal against Norwich in GW12, and they are no longer a team due to the correction in the number of clean sheets.
Due to correction in the number of clean sheets: Manchester City, Chelsea
Manchester City overperformed their defensive expectations the most from all teams. The citizens should have kept 5.39 clean sheets instead of 8 according to our expected clean sheets table.
Due to an improvement in the number of clean sheets: Leicester, Newcastle
Leicester underperformed their defensive expectations the most from all teams. They should have kept 3.27 clean sheets instead of 1 according to our expected clean sheets table.
You can see the expected clean sheets table and clean sheet odds for all Premier League teams here.
Goalscoring odds for GW13
Salah (54 %), Aubameyang (45 %) and Vardy (43 %) are most likely to score a goal in FPL GW13 according to bookies any time goalscorer odds.
You can look at all most likely goalscorers here.
FPL GW13 Team - scout selection
Now let’s look at our FPL team for GW13. Salah is our captain.
4.8 m | NEW (H)
7.8 m | SOU (H)
6.6 m | WHU (H)
6.1 m | MUN (H)
5.1 m | BUR (A)
13 m | SOU (H)
10.4 m | BUR (A)
7.5 m | SOU (H)
6.7 m | BHA (A)
6.7 m | EVE (H)
7.8 m | NOR (A)