FPL GW 36+ Preview: Best captain, Differentials and more

Short guide with some FPL tips ahead of GW 36+ deadline. We focused on best captain picks, differentials that could help you boost your rank and clean sheets odds in order to help you with your defense.

Tips for FPL GW36+

Best captain picks for GW36+

In gameweek 36+ we considered mainly Manchester City and Chelsea players as our captain picks and we left out some popular choices from previous gameweeks like Mohamed Salah or Bruno Fernandes.

3. Willian (NOR (H))

Willian is having his best season ever in terms of FPL points. He has already surpassed by quit a margin his 2015/16 season, where he scored 135 points. Chelsea winger scored biggest portion of his FPL points in last seven games, where he was averaging 8.71 points per match. After the break, Wilian scored 4 goals and registered 2 assists, only Bruno Fernandes, Raheem Sterling and Michail Antonio have been more productive in this short timeframe. After the break he registered 3.2 xG (however, big portion of his xG are three penalties) and 2.21 xA.  

Norwich has not shown much after the break, scored only one goal while conceding 15 (no team have conceded more) and fail to collect single point. Chelsea have plenty to play for and could easily win the match by bigger margin. And Willian as the architect of their attack in last matches should be involved in their goals.

2. Kevin De Bruyne (BOU (H))

Despite the fact that Kevin De Bruyne had just one assists in last ten Manchester City goals, we still consider him as a great captain pick in the GW 36+. He was very creative in these last two games that Man City won 5-0 where he produced 12 key passes and 1.9 xA. So he should have had more than just one assists. On the other hand, De Bruyne was not so active in terms of shots on goal and he had just one shot in each match with combined xG of just 0.08. He was subbed off early against Brighton what suggests that he could start against Bournemouth. However, it is extremely hard to predict the rotation of Pep Guardiola.

Bournemouth has been very poor defensively after the break, despite the clean sheet against Spurs. Man City has been averaging 3.29 goals per match since restart which is highest from all Premier League teams and it is very unlikely that Bournemouth defense could be able to lower this average. De Bruyne is the most scoring player in the FPL this season and we may expect that he will be very popular captain choice among all FPL managers.

1. Raheem Sterling (BOU (H))

Since the restart Manchester City has scored 23 goals and Raheem Sterling has been involved in 39 % of them (6 goals and 3 assists). During this period, Sterling has scored 60 FPL points and no other Man City player managed to score more. He is back in form. In terms of expected goals, he has been overperforming his stats a little bit in this short time period, because he needed just 3.23 xG and 0.89 xA for his 6 goals and 3 assists.

However when we look at his underlying stats from whole 2019/20 season, his expected goals and assists are almost equal to his goals and assists. (17 goals ≈ 17.03 xG, 5 assists ≈ 6.82 xA) so he has been performing just as he should when considering expected underlying stats. Sterling is owned only by around 18 percent of FPL managers (Kevin De Bruyne is owned by 52 percent), and if he hauls again, you can expect high jump in your ranking if he is your captain.

Differential captain pick: Danny Ings (BHA (H))

Danny Ings is having an extraordinary season. He is chasing the golden boot and he is just three goals behind Jamie Vardy. He has been superb after the break with 7.4 FPL points per match and he is still owned only by 28 percent of FPL managers. The momentum and the desire to win the golden boot are at his side and it increases his appeal as a fantasy asset.

Ings is doing very well in FPL bonus point system and he is top for bonus points (37) from all players this season. He only needs one goal and his outcome can easily be 9 points (again) instead of just 6. His Southampton face Brighton in GW 36+, that conceded 12 goals after the break (3rd worst after Bournemouth and Norwich).

You can compare underlying stats from Understat of our captain suggestions in the table below.

PlayerShots per 90Key Passes per 90xG per 90xA per 90
Ings2.981.160.480.10
Willian2.492.530.280.3
De Bruyne3.213.990.260.63
Sterling3.231.630.620.25

Differentials for GW36+

David Silva (BOU (H))

With so many great FPL picks among Manchester City attacking player, David Silva is probably the one that has been most overlooked by FPL community since the restart. He has scored 2 goals and 2 assists since the restart with xG of 2.00 and xA of 2.59.

He was rested in the match against Brighton, where he played only 24 minutes and that’s why we expect him to start against Bournemouth. Pep Guardiola suggested on the post-match press conference that he was going to make 5-6 changes against Bournemouth, and we think David Silva starting will be one of them.

Tammy Abraham (NOR (H))

When considering expected goals, Tammy Abraham has been probably the most underperforming player since the Premier League restart. He is fourth for the xG from all payers after the break (after Antonio, Jesus and Salah), but he managed to turn his chances that had combined xG of 3.77 only into 1 goal.

Abraham had 5 shots in the match vs. Sheffield United but failed to convert any of them. If starts against Norwich he could easily exploit holes in their defense.

GW36+ clean sheet probabilities

In order to help you with your defense, we converted bookies odds of clean sheets for all teams into probabilities.

TeamProbability of CS
Man City51 %
Man United50 %
Chelsea50 %
Wolves41 %
Leicester40 %
Tottenham36 %
Southampton34 %
Everton33 %
West Ham28 %
Liverpool25 %
Burnley25 %
Watford24 %
Brighton24 %
Newcastle18 %
Seffield Utd18 %
Aston Villa17 %
Arsenal15 %
Crystal Palace12 %
Norwich5 %
Bournemouth4 %

According to probabilities, Man City, Man United and Chelsea are highly likely to keep a clean sheet in gameweek 36+. It suggests that maybe you shouldn’t focus only on bringing in attackers from these team, but also a defender.

Bookies expect 5.51 clean sheets in this gameweek, what is only 0.01 more than an average amount of 5.5 cleen sheets per gameweek we had this season.

Scout selection for GW36+

With all the information combined, we constructed our scout selection for gw36+.

Goalkeeper

Patricio

5.3 m | BUR (A)

Defence

Digne

5.8 m | AVL (H)

Wan-Bissaka

5.5 m | CRY (A)

Azpilicueta

6.0 m | NOR (H)

Midfield

De Bruyne

10.8 m | BOU (H)

Sterling (C)

11.7 m | BOU (H)

Willian

7.4 m | NOR (H)

David Silva

7.3 m | BOU (H)

Antonio

7.0 m | WAT (H)

Attack

Ings

7.4 m | BHA (H)

Abraham

7.4 m | NOR (H)

Wolves kept 8 clean sheets in their last 11 matches, and they have high probability of a clean sheet even in the gameweek 36+, so Rui Patricio is the goalkeeper of our scout squad.

Lucas Digne has 3 assists in his last 5 starts and he could unleash he creative potential against Aston Villa. Having Manchester United defender in our scout selection – this time Wan-Bissaka – is no surprise, because Manchester United have again 50 percent probability of a clean sheet. Azpilicueta is our preferred pick in Chelsea backline due to his attacking threat and easy fixture.

In the midfield we targeted mainly Manchester City players David Silva, Kevin De Bruyne and Raheem Sterling who is our captain. After four goals against Norwich we expect Michail Antonio to do well against Watford, too. And the last one in the midfield of our selection is Willian.

And among forwards we favor Danny Ings and Tammy Abraham.

Targeting Man City and Chelsea players

Targeting Manchester City and Chelsea players will be very popular transfer strategy of FPL managers in GW 36+, especially for those on a free hit. Even in our tips, captain picks and differentials we were focusing on players from those teams due to their opponents. So do not overlook them.