FPL GW 33+ Preview: Best captain, Clean sheet odds, Optimized squad and more

We prepared short guide and few tips for FPL managers ahead of GW 33+ deadline.

Tips for FPL GW33+

Top scoring XI within the budget so far

We start our FPL GW33+ preview with a look at the optimized squad: a combination of 11 players within the budget of 83.5m (starting XI, bench another 16.5m) that scored the most points from the beginning of the season. It is basically the top scoring XI within the budget and without transfers or autosubs. You can learn more about how it is calculated in our very first article about optimized squad in the FPL.

Goalkeeper

Pope

5 m | 135 points

Defence

Lundstram

4,8 m | 134 points

TAA

7,8 m | 187 points

van Dijk

6,5 m | 156 points

Baldock

5 m | 123 points

Midfield

De Bruyne (C)

10,7 m | 201 points

Traore

5,8 m | 119 points

Salah

12,6 m | 197 points

Attack

Vardy

9,8 m | 171 points

Ings

7,2 m | 153 points

Jimenez

8,3 m | 164 points

It is no surprise to see top scoring goalkeeper in the goal. 4-3-3 formation was the best fit for the algorithm, but it is more about players in it, than about formation. TAA, van Dijk, Lundstram and Baldock scored too many points for relatively low price. Traore is cheap enabler that allowed two big guns: De Bruyne and Salah to be involved in the best XI despite their high price tag. And Vardy, Ings and Jimenez are 3 of 4 top scoring forwards (after gw31+ deadline), so no surprise here either.

We hope this optimized team will help you with the structure of your own squad.

Best captain options for GW33+

3. Mohamed Salah (AVL (H))

On any other day when Liverpool face Aston Villa Mohamed Salah would be our number 1. captain pick without any doubt. However, in gameweek 33+ the situation is different. After the match against Man City, Liverpool have 3 days to recover and Klopp suggested on the press conference that “they will have to do a lot of changes in the remaining six of seven fixtures in order to prevent injuries.”

That is our highest concern about captaining Salah or Mané this week, because it really looks like a fixture where they could be rested. However, we still expect them to play a lot of minutes until the end of the season, but be prepared, that there very likely will be some unexpected benching in 2 or 3 remaining matches. But with golden boot race still on, they could easily do very well even as substitutes.

2. Ryiad Mahrez (SOU (A))

9 points per match in first three fixtures after Premier League restart is hard to ignore. Mahrez is in a great form this season and he has been second highest scoring player from Manchester City after Kevin De Bruyne. He is averaging 3.2 shots per 90 minutes and 2.81 Key Passes per 90 minutes, which are higher numbers than those of Raheem Sterling, but lower than those of Kevin De Bruyne. 

We expect some rotation from Man City, however from last Man City press conferences we know that Mahrez, Sterling and Walker are players that regenerate really quickly, and we favor Algerian to start (especially if he misses Newcastle game in the FA Cup).  

1. Anthony Martial (BOU (H))

Manchester United have been very impressive in last few gameweeks and they have very favorable run of fixtures ahead. We don’t expect much rotation from Solskjaer with Top 4 still achievable for Manchester United and Antony Martial and Marcus Rashford were rested in the FA cup match against Norwich City.

Anthony Martial stole the show in the match against Sheffield and thanks to great form he is dominating xG stats from last 3 matches, where he registered 3.17 xG and 0.61 xA. We consider him as a safest pick than Salah and Mahrez and we think he is the most likely to start next match from these three.

You can compare stats from Understat from this season of our three captain picks for gw33+ in the following table.  

PlayerShots per 90Key Passes per 90xG per 90xA per 90
Salah3.941.870.610.29
Mahrez3.22.810.350.51
Martial2.880.960.510.14

Differential FPL picks for GW33+

Divock Origi (AVL (H))

As Jurgen Klopp suggested we will very likely see a rotation from Liverpool, what makes Divock Origi very appealing differential in the match against Aston Villa. We can’t be sure whether he starts against Villa, but if he does, he could be involved in Liverpool goals.

He started 4 matches this season and blanked in only one of them. He scored 3 goals and registered 3 assists in 538 minutes, which means one goal or assists (one goal involvement) every 89,67 minute.

Paul Pogba (BOU (H))

Paul Pogba is back after injury and it was pleasure to watch him play in first two matches after the break. He is owned just by 3,9 % of FPL managers and he had rest in the FA cup, so he will very likely start against Bournemouth.

Pogba played very little this season, so there are not too match of data to analyze his performance. However, in his 9 appearances he registered 2,16 shots per 90 minutes and 2,88 key passes per 90 minutes, what is really promising. We expect him to do well against Bournemouth.

GW33+ clean sheets probabilities

Even before this gameweek we converted bookies odds into probabilities of keeping a clean sheet for all teams in GW 33+.

TeamProbability of CS
Man United53 %
Leicester49 %
Man City48 %
Chelsea44 %
Liverpool41 %
Sheffield34 %
Burnley32 %
Wolves32 %
Tottenham31 %
Brighton30 %
Newcastle29 %
West Ham25 %
Norwich24 %
Arsenal22 %
Everton18 %
Crystal Palace16 %
Watford10 %
Aston Villa10 %
Bournemouth8 %
Southampton8 %

In last couple of gameweeks, bookmakers favored Manchester United to keep a clean sheet and in this GW it is the same. Beside that Man United have good fixtures until the end of the season, so investing in their defense might by a good idea. From United defense we are closely watching Aaron Wan Bissaka because of his bonus points potential and Harry Maguire because of his goal threat.

Do not forget to order your bench

Hopefully we brought some inspiration to you with our tips for GW33+. One last advice: do not forget to order your bench and set your vice-captain, because we will very likely see a lot of rotation in the next gameweek.