Chelsea and Spurs have 6 games left this season, while many other teams (like Arsenal) have just 4 games left. So, should you sacrifice good single gameweek players and go all in on Spurs, Chelsea and other double gameweek teams?
The metric points per match should give us a clue on what to do.
Tables below show average amount of points players from each position were getting through season. We multiplied the ppm (points per match) by the number of games left (4,5 or 6) to get an idea of how many points would certain players get between Gameweek 35 and Gameweek 38 if they would score according to their current points per match metric.
Goalkepeers points per match
The assumption: each player will play all games for his team until the end of the season.
Just let’s look at ppm (points per match). Raya is averaging 4.3 points per match, while Petrovič 2.8 ppm and Vicario 3.1 ppm. That gives us the expected output of 17.2 points in 4 games for Raya, 16.8 points in 6 games for Petrovič, and 18.6 points in 6 games for Vicario. So the difference is small, despite Spurs and Chelsea having 50% more games until the end of the season.
| Player | Points Per Match | Games left | Exp. Points (GW35-38) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vicario | 3.1 | 6 | 18.6 |
| Onana | 3.5 | 5 | 17.5 |
| Raya | 4.3 | 4 | 17.2 |
| Dubravka | 3.4 | 5 | 17 |
| Petrović | 2.8 | 6 | 16.8 |
| Ederson M. | 3.3 | 5 | 16.5 |
| A.Becker | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| Verbruggen | 3.2 | 5 | 16 |
| Pickford | 3.9 | 4 | 15.6 |
| Areola | 3.9 | 4 | 15.6 |
| Muric | 3.7 | 4 | 14.8 |
| Martinez | 3.6 | 4 | 14.4 |
| Leno | 3.6 | 4 | 14.4 |
| Neto | 3.5 | 4 | 14 |
| Flekken | 3.1 | 4 | 12.4 |
| José Sá | 3.1 | 4 | 12.4 |
| Trafford | 2.5 | 4 | 10 |
| Turner | 2.5 | 4 | 10 |
| Odysseas | 2.4 | 4 | 9.6 |
| Fabianski | 2.4 | 4 | 9.6 |
| Kaminski | 2.3 | 4 | 9.2 |
Defenders points per match
The assumption: each player will play all games for his team until the end of the season.
| Player | Points Per Match | Games left | Exp. Points (GW35-38) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Porro | 3.8 | 6 | 22.8 |
| Trippier | 4.3 | 5 | 21.5 |
| White | 5.1 | 4 | 20.4 |
| Romero | 3.4 | 6 | 20.4 |
| Bradley | 4.9 | 4 | 19.6 |
| Alexander-Arnold | 4.8 | 4 | 19.2 |
| T.Silva | 3.2 | 6 | 19.2 |
| Schär | 3.7 | 5 | 18.5 |
| Aké | 3.6 | 5 | 18 |
| Walker | 3.6 | 5 | 18 |
| Van de Ven | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| Akanji | 3.5 | 5 | 17.5 |
| Stones | 3.5 | 5 | 17.5 |
| Saliba | 4.3 | 4 | 17.2 |
| R.Lewis | 3.4 | 5 | 17 |
| Maguire | 3.4 | 5 | 17 |
| Gabriel | 4.2 | 4 | 16.8 |
| Colwill | 2.8 | 6 | 16.8 |
| Udogie | 2.8 | 6 | 16.8 |
| Lindelof | 3.3 | 5 | 16.5 |
| Zinchenko | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| Gvardiol | 3.2 | 5 | 16 |
| Burn | 3.2 | 5 | 16 |
| Gusto | 2.6 | 6 | 15.6 |
| Estupiñan | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| Botman | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| Tsimikas | 3.7 | 4 | 14.8 |
| Dalot | 2.9 | 5 | 14.5 |
| Lascelles | 2.9 | 5 | 14.5 |
| Kiwior | 3.6 | 4 | 14.4 |
| Mykolenko | 3.6 | 4 | 14.4 |
| Branthwaite | 3.4 | 4 | 13.6 |
| Virgil | 3.4 | 4 | 13.6 |
| Dunk | 2.7 | 5 | 13.5 |
| Rúben | 2.7 | 5 | 13.5 |
| Tosin | 3.3 | 4 | 13.2 |
| Shaw | 2.6 | 5 | 13 |
| Pau | 3.1 | 4 | 12.4 |
| Senesi | 3.1 | 4 | 12.4 |
| Andersen | 3.1 | 4 | 12.4 |
| Castagne | 3.1 | 4 | 12.4 |
| Reguilón | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| Tarkowski | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| Mitchell | 2.9 | 4 | 11.6 |
| Robinson | 2.9 | 4 | 11.6 |
| Digne | 2.8 | 4 | 11.2 |
| Konsa | 2.8 | 4 | 11.2 |
| Dawson | 2.8 | 4 | 11.2 |
| Tomiyasu | 2.7 | 4 | 10.8 |
| Smith | 2.7 | 4 | 10.8 |
| Pinnock | 2.7 | 4 | 10.8 |
| Doughty | 2.7 | 4 | 10.8 |
| Henry | 2.6 | 4 | 10.4 |
| Guéhi | 2.6 | 4 | 10.4 |
| Collins | 2.5 | 4 | 10 |
| Muñoz | 2.5 | 4 | 10 |
| Diop | 2.5 | 4 | 10 |
| Konaté | 2.5 | 4 | 10 |
| Toffolo | 2.5 | 4 | 10 |
| Coufal | 2.5 | 4 | 10 |
Midfielders points per match
The assumption: each player will play all games for his team until the end of the season.
| Player | Points Per Match | Games left | Exp. Points (GW35-38) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palmer | 7.4 | 6 | 44.4 |
| Son | 6.4 | 6 | 38.4 |
| Foden | 6.4 | 5 | 32 |
| March | 5.6 | 5 | 28 |
| Maddison | 4.6 | 6 | 27.6 |
| De Bruyne | 5.5 | 5 | 27.5 |
| Salah | 6.8 | 4 | 27.2 |
| Richarlison | 4.4 | 6 | 26.4 |
| Gordon | 5.1 | 5 | 25.5 |
| Saka | 6.3 | 4 | 25.2 |
| B.Fernandes | 4.9 | 5 | 24.5 |
| Olise | 5.9 | 4 | 23.6 |
| Sterling | 3.9 | 6 | 23.4 |
| Gross | 4.6 | 5 | 23 |
| Rodrigo | 4.6 | 5 | 23 |
| Johnson | 3.8 | 6 | 22.8 |
| Ødegaard | 5.4 | 4 | 21.6 |
| Bowen | 5.3 | 4 | 21.2 |
| Kulusevski | 3.5 | 6 | 21 |
| Mbeumo | 5.2 | 4 | 20.8 |
| Diogo J. | 5.2 | 4 | 20.8 |
| Bernardo | 4 | 5 | 20 |
| Gallagher | 3.3 | 6 | 19.8 |
| Mitoma | 3.9 | 5 | 19.5 |
| Garnacho | 3.9 | 5 | 19.5 |
| Brereton Díaz | 4.8 | 4 | 19.2 |
| Douglas Luiz | 4.6 | 4 | 18.4 |
| Havertz | 4.5 | 4 | 18 |
| Bailey | 4.5 | 4 | 18 |
| Eze | 4.5 | 4 | 18 |
| Neto | 4.5 | 4 | 18 |
| Doku | 3.6 | 5 | 18 |
| Bruno G. | 3.6 | 5 | 18 |
| Hinshelwood | 3.5 | 5 | 17.5 |
| Hee Chan | 4.3 | 4 | 17.2 |
| Rashford | 3.4 | 5 | 17 |
| Adingra | 3.3 | 5 | 16.5 |
| J.Murphy | 3.3 | 5 | 16.5 |
| Rice | 4.1 | 4 | 16.4 |
| Schade | 4.1 | 4 | 16.4 |
| Ward-Prowse | 4.1 | 4 | 16.4 |
| Kudus | 4.1 | 4 | 16.4 |
| Diaby | 3.9 | 4 | 15.6 |
| Luis Díaz | 3.9 | 4 | 15.6 |
| Trossard | 3.8 | 4 | 15.2 |
| A.Doucoure | 3.7 | 4 | 14.8 |
| Gibbs-White | 3.7 | 4 | 14.8 |
| Martinelli | 3.6 | 4 | 14.4 |
| McNeil | 3.6 | 4 | 14.4 |
| Sarabia | 3.6 | 4 | 14.4 |
| McGinn | 3.5 | 4 | 14 |
| Andreas | 3.5 | 4 | 14 |
| Elanga | 3.4 | 4 | 13.6 |
| L.Paquetá | 3.4 | 4 | 13.6 |
| Jensen | 3.3 | 4 | 13.2 |
| J.Ayew | 3.3 | 4 | 13.2 |
| Iwobi | 3.3 | 4 | 13.2 |
| Mac Allister | 3.3 | 4 | 13.2 |
| Szoboszlai | 3.3 | 4 | 13.2 |
| Barkley | 3.3 | 4 | 13.2 |
Forwards points per match
The assumption: each player will play all games for his team until the end of the season.
| Player | Points Per Match | Games left | Exp. Points (GW35-38) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland | 6.7 | 5 | 33.5 |
| Isak | 5.4 | 5 | 27 |
| Watkins | 6.6 | 4 | 26.4 |
| N.Jackson | 3.8 | 6 | 22.8 |
| Werner | 3.8 | 6 | 22.8 |
| J.Alvarez | 4.5 | 5 | 22.5 |
| Solanke | 4.8 | 4 | 19.2 |
| Højlund | 3.7 | 5 | 18.5 |
| Cunha | 4.3 | 4 | 17.2 |
| Wilson | 3.4 | 5 | 17 |
| João Pedro | 3.3 | 5 | 16.5 |
| Mateta | 4.1 | 4 | 16.4 |
| Wood | 4.1 | 4 | 16.4 |
| Darwin | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| D.D.Fofana | 3.9 | 4 | 15.6 |
| Muniz | 3.9 | 4 | 15.6 |
| Morris | 3.9 | 4 | 15.6 |
| Awoniyi | 3.8 | 4 | 15.2 |
| Toney | 3.7 | 4 | 14.8 |
| Wissa | 3.6 | 4 | 14.4 |
| Adebayo | 3.5 | 4 | 14 |
| Semenyo | 3.4 | 4 | 13.6 |
| Foster | 3.4 | 4 | 13.6 |
| Welbeck | 2.7 | 5 | 13.5 |
| G.Jesus | 3.3 | 4 | 13.2 |
| McBurnie | 3.1 | 4 | 12.4 |
| Calvert-Lewin | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| Antonio | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| Edouard | 2.9 | 4 | 11.6 |
| Archer | 2.8 | 4 | 11.2 |
Conclusion
- We can see that Spurs defensive assets such as Vicario, Pedro Porro are on top of the tables, but their expected points output are very similar to those of Arsenal defenders
- Arsenal midfielders are behind the likes of Palmer, Son, Maddison
- Chelsea defenders are nowhere to be seen
- Watkins still over Jackson despite having 2 games less in GW35-GW38
