UCL Fantasy: Probabilities of progressing to Quarterfinals

1st leg of R16 Fantasy Champions League is now over. We have seen a lot of goals and, most importantly, a lot of ucl fantasy points.

However, it is time to start planning our transfers for the Matchday 8 – 2nd leg of R16. We have three free transfers available.

We think, that you should transfer out players that will likely not progress to the Quarterfinals. And, similarly, transfer in players that will likely go through.

To help you with that, we converted bookies odds of progressing to the Quarterfinals to probabilities with our True Odds Calculator, just as we did before the start of 1st leg.

However, the odds now changed after the 1st leg is over.

The most actual probabilities of progressing to the quarterfinals for all teams are in the table below.

Probabilities of progressing to quarterfinals

TeamTo Qualify (before 1st leg)To Qualify (after 1st leg)
Real Madrid49 %98 %
SL Benefica76 %97 %
Napoli71 %96 %
Bayern53 %83 %
Manch.City88 %80 %
Inter Milano57 %74 %
AC Milan45 %62 %
Dortmund36 %60 %
Chelsea64 %40 %
Tottenham55 %38 %
FC Porto43 %26 %
Leipzig13 %20 %
Paris SG47 %17 %
Eint.Frankfurt29 %4 %
Club Brugge24 %3 %
Liverpool51 %2 %


Matej Šuľan

Fantasy Football enthusiast with two top 1k finishes in FPL. Best FPL overall rank: 119th in 2019/20 season. Five top 500 finishes in UCL Fantasy, best overall rank: 23rd in 2018/19 season. Founder of Fantasy Football Reports.

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *