UCL Fantasy: Probabilities of progressing to Quarterfinals

First leg of the R16 Fantasy Champions League is now over. We have seen a lot of goals and, most importantly, a lot of ucl fantasy points.

However, it is time to start planning our transfers for the Matchday 8 – 2nd leg of R16. We have three free transfers available.

We think, that you should transfer out players that will likely not progress to the Quarterfinals. And, similarly, transfer in players that will likely go through.

To help you with that, we converted bookies odds of progressing to the Quarterfinals to probabilities with our True Odds Calculator, just as we did before the start of 1st leg.

However, the odds changed after the 1st leg was over.

The most actual probabilities of progressing to the quarterfinals for all teams are in the table below.

This article is part of the series: UCL Fantasy Matchday 8: Tips, Best Pick, Captain and Team Selection

Probabilities of progressing to quarterfinals

In the table below, you can see to qualify odds, and how they changed after the R16 1st leg results.

TeamAfter 1st LegBefore 1st LegChange
Man.City99.9 %95.45 %4.45 %
Real Madrid90.76 %76.7 %14.06 %
PSG88.94 %64.1 %24.84 %
Inter Milano74.57 %52.78 %21.79 %
Barcelona72.78 %64.1 %8.68 %
Arsenal67.03 %82.17 %-15.14 %
Bayern64.41 %88.31 %-23.9 %
Dortmund58.24 %57.98 %0.26 %
PSV Eindhoven41.76 %42.02 %-0.26 %
Lazio35.59 %11.69 %23.9 %
FC Porto32.97 %17.83 %15.14 %
Napoli27.22 %35.9 %-8.68 %
Atl.Madrid25.43 %47.22 %-21.79 %
Real Sociedad11.06 %35.9 %-24.84 %
Leipzig9.24 %23.3 %-14.06 %
FC Kodaň0.1 %4.55 %-4.45 %


Matej Šuľan

Fantasy Football enthusiast with two top 1k finishes in FPL. Best FPL overall rank: 119th in 2019/20 season. Five top 500 finishes in UCL Fantasy, best overall rank: 23rd in 2018/19 season. Founder of Fantasy Football Reports.

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