UCL Fantasy Semi-finals Tips – 1st Leg

Just 5 games left in the 2021/22 Fantasy Champions League season. That is not much room to gain a lot of fantasy points.

Teams of all UCL Fantasy managers will look very similar in the semifinals.

So, let’s look at UCL Fantasy semifinals tips, and let’s show you how to make the most of this matchday. 

Your biggest advantage over other UCL Fantasy managers can be if you start preparing your teams for the Champions League Final right now.

That way you will not have to take unnecessary -4 point hits after the semifinals.

So, let’s look at how to do it.

1. Do not go all-in in two teams.

In the UCL Fantasy R16 and in the Quarterfinals, we always emphasized that you should focus on players from teams that will likely go through. Well, not anymore.

The situation in the 1st leg of the semifinals is not the same. We have already published the probabilities of progressing to the final, and we saw that bookies favor Liverpool and Manchester City to go through.

However, we have seen how unpredictable the Champions League could be when it gets so deep in the tournament as it is now. Villareal going through Bayern is an example of that.

We cannot really predict who will go to the final. So, what should you do in this case?

The answer is diversification

2. Diversification

Yes, before the start of the semifinals 1st leg, you should use diversification to spread the exposure in your UCL Fantasy squad to all 4 teams, but put little bit more weight on Liverpool players. 

Let’s bring back the probabilities of progressing to the final from our previous UCL Fantasy article for the semifinals first leg.

TeamTo Qualify
Liverpool84 %
Manchester City71 %
Real Madrid29 %
Villareal16 %

So, here is how you should spread spots in your squad:

  • 5 players from Liverpool 
  • 4 Manchester City players
  • 4 Real Madrid Players
  • 2 Villareal players

This will help you to get perfectly set up for the Fantasy Champions League Final round – it will help you maximize your chances of having at least 11 starters in your UCL Fantasy squad in the final (regarding the probabilities) no matter which team will go through.

3. What to do after UCL Fantasy semifinals 1st leg

After the 1st leg is over, the probabilities of progressing to finals will change for all teams.

Based on the 1st leg results, there likely will be two teams that will have gained an edge in the semifinals 1st leg, so they will have a higher chance of progressing to the final.

And you will have 3 transfers available. That will help you rebalance your squad and move from diversification to concentration. Let me tell you what that means…

It means, that you will use your three free transfers before the semifinals 2nd leg to get rid of 3 three players that will have lost their 1st leg match, and the probability that their team progressing to the finals will have decreased significantly.

Key notes for semi finals 1st leg

  • Cancelo is suspended
  • Try to have more (8-9) players who play on Tuesday, so you do not have a substitution headache on Wednesday
  • Pick goalkeepers from both days (ideally Ederson and Allison)
  • 5 points is our captaincy threshold (if our captain score 5 or more points we will not change our captaincy)
  • 4 points is our substitution threshold (if a player score 4 or more points we will not sub him off)

What bookies says about MD11

What bookies say about Champions League semi finals? We have already show you probabilities of progressing to the final. Now let’s check clean sheet odds and goalscoring odds.

Our probabilities are calculated from bookies odds using our Odds to probability calculator.

Clean sheet odds

Liverpool (51 %) and Manchester City (40 %) are most likely to keep a clean sheet in the 1st leg of semifinals.

You can check all MD11 clean sheet odds here: Champions League Clean Sheet Odds.

Goalscoring odds

With a 48 % probability of scoring a goal, Mohamed Salah is the most likely goalscorer in the 1st leg of UCL Fantasy semi finals.

You can check all MD11 goalscoring odds here: Champions League Goalscoring Odds.

Best captain for UCL Fantasy Semifinals

We will keep the captaincy section very short. We think, there are two obvious in-form captaincy options for the 1st leg of the semifinals.

Our first captain for Tuesday is Kevin De Bruyne who has 6 goals and 4 assists in his last 9 starts for City.

Our backup captain for Wednesday is Mohamed Salah who has the fixture and form on his side. We think Mohamed Salah is the best captain option for UCL Fantasy Semi finals 1st leg.

UCL Fantasy Semifinals Team (1st leg)

Let’s finish our MD11 tips with our UCL Fantasy team for semi finals 1st leg (MD11)

ucl fantasy semifinals 1st leg team

Conclusion

Goog luck in UCL Fantasy Semi finals 1st leg! 

Matej Šuľan

Fantasy Football enthusiast with two top 1k finishes in FPL. Best FPL overall rank: 119th in 2019/20 season. Four top 500 finishes in UCL Fantasy, best overall rank: 23rd in 2018/19 season. Founder of Fantasy Football Reports.

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