Is Fantasy Football and FPL a game of luck or skill?

is fantasy football luck or skill

Fantasy football, a popular pastime for sports enthusiasts worldwide, has sparked a long-standing debate: Are fantasy football competitions such as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game of luck or skill? This question is not just a matter of casual conversation among players.

It has significant implications, from how players approach the game to legal considerations in some jurisdictions.

Understanding the role of luck and skill in fantasy football is crucial for both new and experienced players. It can influence their strategies, their expectations, and ultimately, their enjoyment of the game.

This article aims to delve into this debate, exploring the various aspects of fantasy football that require skill, those that depend on luck, and how these elements interact in the game. Whether you’re a seasoned player or a curious observer, this exploration will provide valuable insights into the fascinating world of fantasy football.

The Role of Skill in Fantasy Football and FPL

Skill plays a crucial role in fantasy football. Knowledge about the sport, the players, and how to strategize are all essential components of a successful fantasy football experience.

Understanding the ins and outs of the game, including player statistics, team dynamics, and game strategies, can give owners an edge. This knowledge allows them to make informed decisions when transferring players and throughout the season when managing their team.

Transfers and using chips are also significant aspects of the game where skill comes into play. Successful players know how to evaluate players effectively, balance their team’s strengths and weaknesses, and make transfers that will benefit their team in the long run.

Also, skillful managers know when to use their chips so it increases the points potential of their team in the long run.

There are numerous examples of skillful players who consistently perform well in fantasy football. These individuals often have a deep understanding of football, spend time analyzing player data, and make strategic decisions that lead to their success.

The Role of Luck in Fantasy Football and FPL

Despite the importance of skill, luck also plays a significant role in fantasy football. Unpredictable factors such as injuries, unexpected player performance, and game-day decisions can all impact a fantasy team’s success.

Injuries are a prime example of where luck comes into play. No matter how skillfully an owner creates their team, they cannot predict when or if their players might get injured. Similarly, a player’s performance can vary from game to game, and while skillful analysis can make predictions more accurate, it can never eliminate this uncertainty.

Understanding the role of luck in fantasy football also involves distinguishing between luck and chance. While both involve elements of unpredictability, chance refers to events with known probabilities, like a coin toss, while luck refers to unpredictable events with unknown probabilities, like player performance or injuries.

There are countless stories of fantasy football outcomes that came down to sheer luck. From last-minute clean sheet wipeouts that tipped to underdogs outperforming expectations, these instances highlight the unpredictable and exciting nature of the game.

The Balance Between Luck and Skill

The interplay between luck and skill in fantasy football is a complex and fascinating aspect of the game. While skill can increase the chances of success, luck can often tip the scales in unexpected ways.

The question of how much of fantasy football is luck and how much is skill is a contentious one. Some argue that the game is mostly luck, citing the unpredictable nature of football and the numerous variables at play. Others maintain that skill is the dominant factor, pointing to the consistent success of knowledgeable and strategic players.

Expert opinions on the luck-skill balance in fantasy football vary. Some studies suggest that fantasy football is a game of skill that rewards strategic decision-making and in-depth knowledge of the sport. However, these studies also acknowledge the role of luck, particularly in short-term outcomes.


In conclusion, fantasy football is a game that intertwines skill and luck in a captivating dance. While skillful strategy and in-depth knowledge can provide an edge, the unpredictable nature of football ensures that luck will always have a role to play. Whether you view the game as a test of your football expertise or a thrilling game of chance, one thing is clear: fantasy football adds an extra layer of excitement to the football season.


Is fantasy sports a skill or luck?

Fantasy sports, including football, are a combination of both skill and luck. Skill is involved in picking a team, making transfers , and managing your team throughout the season. Luck comes into play with unpredictable factors such as player injuries and performance.

Is fantasy mostly luck?

While luck plays a significant role in fantasy football, it’s not accurate to say the game is mostly luck. Skillful decision-making and strategic planning can significantly influence a team’s success.

Is fantasy football a game of chance?

Fantasy football involves elements of chance, particularly when it comes to unpredictable events like player injuries. However, it also requires skill and strategic decision-making, distinguishing it from games of chance like roulette or lottery.

Matej Šuľan

Fantasy Football enthusiast with two top 1k finishes in FPL. Best FPL overall rank: 119th in 2019/20 season. Five top 500 finishes in UCL Fantasy, best overall rank: 23rd in 2018/19 season. Founder of Fantasy Football Reports.

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