The Gameweek 3 of Fantasy Premier League is on the horizon.
Some FPL managers that did exceptionally well in the GW1 struggled in GW2. But that is how the game works: joy and disappointment repeat over and over again.
If you are disappointed about your GW2 score, just look at your total points score from both gameweeks and ask yourself: If someone told me before GW1 that I was going to have such a high score after GW2 would I take it?
I think most of you would.
So, it is time to concentrate our effort on gameweek 3, and let’s jump on our FPL GW3 Tips, best picks, fixtures, transfer targets, odds, captain picks, and team selection.
Read more: 4 Books that will help you improve your FPL skills
1. Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 3 Tips
If you saved a transfer after GW1, you now have 2 free transfers. You have several options according to the current situation of your team:
- If your team is in very good shape, you do not need to use both 2 free transfers. You can simply just make 1 transfer – 1 simple tactical change, and save the other transfer, to have again 2 available in GW4. Or save it to accumulate 3 free transfers (as you can accumulate up t 5 free transfers – new rule from previous season). You can offload some of the dead weight in your team, or wait for Palmer/Saka news, and sell them if they are out again
- That way you would have two free transfers in the international break that could be very valuable in GW4 – anything can happen during international breaks
- Use both free transfers to improve your squad, target players with good fixtures from GW3 onwards, or players whose probability of delivering points/starting improved and are good value
- Do mini-wildcard – make 3 transfers (2 free transfers + 1 hit for -4 points) if your squad is not in good shape and you need to rebalance your squad or move the money around your team
Notes:
- If you have Palmer, wait for more clarity on his injury – it could be just a small issue and potentially could be back for GW3
- Try to avoid using wildcard too early. Be more patient with players you picked before the season. Read more: Tips for efficient use of wildcard in FPL
- Keep faith in some good players that blanked (like Watkins) – some players were unlucky to not deliver points. The points delivery is never linear. No player is delivering the same amount of points gameweek after gameweek. Although some players can deliver like 6-6-6 points, others could deliver like 14-2-2 or 2-2-14 – but the total is the same. You have to deal with uncertainties intelligently. Some good players blanked now in GW1 and GW2 too – but that does not mean they are bad picks – especially if that is a case of good, reliable players that “did it” in previous seasons too. Sometimes you have to be more patient – unless you picked “bad” FPL assets – players that are unlikely to deliver points.
- Accept that you cannot have them all. You will miss points. Pick your players and stick to them. Do not tear your team apart to bring in some new shiny objects just because they had double-digit hauls in GW2. We have many amazing players to choose from; they will score points, you must accept that. Stick to the players you picked and focus on the balance of your FPL team. We have just 11 spots in our teams.
Players notes
- We were cautious about Semenyo after GW2. But his underlying stats in GW2 were solid again – according to Understat, he accumulated 1.25 xG – so he was unlucky not to score. Bournemouth have good fixtures, he could really be the top transfer target in the coming gameweeks.
- Reijnders – accumulated just 0.4 xGI in total in both gameweeks. His haul from GW1 could just be an outlier.
- Spurs are looking interesting – and their fixtures up to GW9 are amazing. Many bargains among their players (Pedro Porro, Kudus, Richarlison, Johnson) – but we are currently only on Porro, it is too early to tell which of their midfielders/forwards is going to be the player to pick.
- Arsenal defenders – Arsenal god their clean sheets in first 2 gameweeks, but now their next 4 fixtures are going to be tough. But good teams can keep clean sheets even in tough games. But still we are not on Arsenal defenders (yet) – probably only from GW7
- Joao Pedro – we are still not on the Joao Pedro train. He was a very unreliable FPL asset in previous seasons. And he had his 3 attacking returns against West Ham from just 0.52 xGI.
Time to use the first free hit?
- If you are heavy on Arsenal, Liverpool (+Palmer), it is with consider using a free hit in GW3. Especially if it looks like Palmer could be out just for GW3 and if you do not think that there are many goals in ARS vs LIV game.
- But as it stands, I am not using my free hit in GW3.
- Read more: When to use free hit in FPL?
FPL Reminders – time to remind you (and ourselves) some of our principles to dealing with uncertainties in FPL
2. Key players to own and transfer targets for FPL GW3
Key players
- Haaland/Salah – one of them, your captain options in almost any gameweek
- Tarkowski/Murillo/Caicedo/Anderson/Baleba – pick one or two players good at defensive contributions and just stick to them
- Dubravka – you bench goalkeeper
- Bruno Fernandes – could be good captaincy candidate against Burnley
Transfer targets
- Semenyo
- Wood – differential captain against West Ham
- Pedro Porro – mainly if you are not on any Spurs player yet, their fixtures are too good to ignore, and Porro is the only one of their attacking players who is yet to deliver an attacking return
3. Fixtures to target in Gameweek 3
In which fixtures we could expect a lot of fantasy points? Fixtures to target in GW3 according to bookies odds:
- Man. United vs Burnley: Red Devils 72 % to win, 37 % to score 2.5+ goals
- Chelsea vs. Fulham: The Blues 63 % to win, 32 % to score 2.5+ goals
- Tottenham vs. Bournemouth: Spurs 57 % to win, 31 % to score 2.5+ goals
- Nottingham vs. West Ham: Nottingham 57 % to win, 23 % to score 2.5+ goals
Find 2.5+ goals odds for all teams in our article: Premier League Over 2.5 Goals Odds.
4. Best captain pick in FPL GW3
Who is the best captain in Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 3?
- Bruno Fernandes – good fixture, any meny routes to points – even from defensive contribution
- Chris Wood – West Ham’s defence just looks awful
- Haaland/Salah – they are captaincy options regardless the fixture
5. What bookies odds say about Gameweek 3
As usual, we converted bookies odds into probabilities using our Odds to probability calculator, to assess the potential of gameweek 3.
Clean sheet odds for GW3
Bookies assigned the highest probability of a clean sheet to Man. United – 50 %. They are followed by Nottingham, and Chelsea in our clean sheet odds table.
So this is where we should be looking for clean sheets in the next round of FPL.
You can see the expected clean sheets table and clean sheet odds for all Premier League teams here: Premier League Clean Sheet Odds.
7. Fantasy Premier League Tips
Find more tips, strategies and picks for Fantasy Premier League in these articles:
- Beginner? Read our guide: How to play Fantasy Premier League
- Confused about the rules? Read the Official rules of the game or check our FAQs
- Want to beat your mini-league rivals? This article is for you: 7 Key Tips for Fantasy Premier League Success
- Interested in improving your decision-making process when picking players to your fantasy team? Check out Books that will help you to improve your FPL skills
We hope our FPL GW3 tips helped you to gather some useful information before the Gameweek 3 deadline.
Good luck in FPL GW3!