FPL GW1 Best Captain [Captaincy Index]

fpl gw1 best captain

Picking the right captain every gameweek is essential to your FPL success. If you want to get good OR and beat your mini-league rivals, you must put the armband on the right player in most gameweeks. 

We developed our own Captaincy index to help you with captaincy dilemas every gameweeks. It is a number assigned to each selected player – the higher the number, the higher captaincy potential for player according to our own system.

If you are interested in reading more about how we at Fantasy Football Reports are selecting our captains, read an article: How to pick a captain in FPL?

The information in that article are the foundation of our captaincy index.

Introducing: FPL captaincy Index

Our captaincy index is the sum of six numbers. One looking at each individually, they cannot give us the full picture whether a players is a good captaincy options or not. But when we combine them together, we will get a better picture about player’s captaincy potential. 

Variables in Captaincy Index

  • Goalscorer Odds – the probability that a player will score a goal according to a bookies odds. It is a different number for each match. We convert bookies odds into probabilities using our own Odds to Probability Calculator.
  • Reliability Index – this is a number that measure how reliable was a player in delivering stable output in his 3 previous Premier League seasons. It is a count of how many seasons a player ended up the season with more than 200 points. So if a player scored more than 200+ in all three previous seasons, his Reliability Index is 3 / 3 = 1. If a player ended up only one season with more than 200 points, his reliability index is 1 / 3 = 0.33.
  • Form – this is the form number from Official FPL stats 
  • Opposition FDR Fixture Difficulty Ranking of opposition in current gameweek. 
  • Is Midfielder – Boolean variable. If a player is midfielder, the number is 1. If not, it is 0. The idea behind this variable is that mids are usually scoring bigger hauls than forwards, as they earn more points for goals and clean sheets. We want our system to get a slight advantage to midfielders over forwards. 
  • Is Home – Boolean variable. If a player plays at home in the current gameweek, the number is 1. If not, it is 0. We want to our system to get slight advatage to players playing at home.

Weights of variables

Each variable has its own weight according to its importance in our overall metric. Those weights are:

  • Weight of Goalscorer Odds = 1
  • Weight of Reliability = 1/2
  • Weight of Form = 1/25
  • Weight of opposition FDR = 1/(FDR*FDR)
  • Weight of Is Midfielder = 1/10
  • Weight of Is Home = 1/10

The formula for captaincy index calculation

Then, the captaincy index is calculated as sum of variables multiplied by their weights:

Captaincy Index = Goalscored Odss + 1/2 * Reliability Index + 1/25 * Form + 1/FDR + 1/10 * Is Midfielder + 1/10 * Is Home

FPL GW1 Best captain

According to our captaincy index, Mohamed Salah is the best captain in FPL GW1. 

You can see the calculation of captaincy index for GW1 in the table below:

PlayerCaptaincy IndexGoalscorer OddsReliability Index/2Form/251/oposition FDRIs midfielder/10Home/10
Salah1.510.410.500.50.10
Son1.40.370.3300.50.10.1
Ronaldo1.330.40.3300.500.1
Kane1.170.40.1700.500.1
Vardy1.170.40.1700.500.1
Sterling1.150.380.1700.50.10
Fernandes1.140.270.1700.50.10.1
Wilson1.010.41000.500.1
De Bruyne0.880.280.1700.330.10
Saka0.830.23000.50.10
Mount0.820.22000.50.10
Haaland0.810.48000.3300
Jesus0.790.29000.500
Bowen0.70.130.1700.20.10.1
Mahrez0.70.27000.330.10
Matej Šuľan

Fantasy Football enthusiast with two top 1k finishes in FPL. Best FPL overall rank: 119th in 2019/20 season. Five top 500 finishes in UCL Fantasy, best overall rank: 23rd in 2018/19 season. Founder of Fantasy Football Reports.

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