In order to help you with your decision-making process about your defense ahead of FPL GW4, we assessed which teams are most likely to keep a clean sheet. We converted bookies odds of clean sheet into probabilities using same technique as described in odds to probability calculator.
Clean sheet odds calculation for Fantasy Premier League GW4
Converted odds into probabilities can be found in the table below.
| Team | Probability of CS |
|---|---|
| Wolves | 54.41 % |
| Arsenal | 46.77 % |
| Chelsea | 44.03 % |
| Liverpool | 43.74 % |
| Man City | 42.31 % |
| Southampton | 37.68 % |
| Everton | 36.79 % |
| Leicester | 36.79 % |
| Newcastle | 34.81 % |
| Man United | 33.41 % |
| Burnley | 29.07 % |
| Spurs | 17.51 % |
| Fulham | 16.78 % |
| Brighton | 16.67 % |
| Sheffield | 15.85 % |
| West Brom | 15.85 % |
| West Ham | 12.75 % |
| Crystal Palace | 9.33 % |
| Aston Villa | 9.14 % |
| Leeds | 5.55 % |
Bookies favor Wolves to keep a clean sheet against Fulham with higher than 50 percent probability. That is huge, because we rarely see probability of a clean sheet higher than 50 percent.
So that makes likes of Saiss and Boly (and perhaps their new signing Nelson Semedo) very attractive picks for GW4. Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and man City are other stand out options with very high probability of a clean sheet.
On the other hand defenders from Crystal Palace, Aston Villa and Leeds are not expected to do well, so perhaps you should bench them in your FPL squad if you can.
Expected number of clean sheets based on odds
Based on these odds, the expected number of clean sheets in GW4 is 5.59 what is very high. In last season, we were used to rate of clean sheet of 5.45 per gameweek.
Conclusion
In a gameweek 4 of FPL, there should be higher number of clean sheets than usual. Because of that, if you have defenders from teams that are highly likely keep a clean sheet, you could play on 4 (or 5) defenders in the upcoming gameweek to increase expected output of your FPL points.