Just as always, let’s look at clean sheet probabilities before the start of the next gameweek.
We calculated them by converting bookies odds into probabilities using Odds to probability calculator.
Clean sheet odds GW30
|Team||Probability of CS|
|Manchester City||41 %|
|Manchester United||41 %|
|Aston Villa||34 %|
|West Ham||33 %|
|Crystal Palace||21 %|
|Sheffield United||14 %|
|West Brom||9 %|
In GW30 many teams have a probability of a clean sheet higher than 40 %, which is unusual. It looks like that predicting clean sheets for GW30 is going to be simpler than usual.
Bookies expect 5.94 clean sheets in GW30. This number is higher almost every gameweek.
We started the season at around 5.45 expected clean sheets per gameweek during the first few weeks.
Then after we saw a lot of crazy scores in the first matches, the expected number of clean sheets per gameweek fall to around 5.1, as we were witnessing an offensive overperformance, and just a few clean sheets.
Now, we moved to the other extreme and now we are seeing clean sheets at a higher rate than usual – what we call a period of defensive overperformance.