FPL GW20 Clean Sheet Odds: Period of defensive “overperformance”

Let’s look at which team is most likely to keep a clean sheet in Fantasy Premier League GW 20.

We converted bookies clean sheet odds into probabilities using our Odds to probability calculator that can find fair odds, probabilities and margin bookies are using.

Then we analysed the expected number of clean sheets for GW 20 from a larger perspective.

Let’s dive in.

 

Clean Sheet Odds in GW20

TeamProbability of CS
Manchester City55 %
Manchester United54 %
Chelsea41 %
Brighton35 %
West Ham31 %
Aston Villa30 %
Leeds30 %
Arsenal29 %
Liverpool28 %
Everton26 %
Leicester26 %
Crystal Palace25 %
Southampton23 %
Fulham22 %
Burnley21 %
Spurs20 %
Newcastle17 %
Wolves15 %
Sheffield United8 %
West Brom6 %

It is no surprise to see Manchester City at the top of the clean sheet probabilities table. Citizens have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 Premier League matches.

No team have kept more clean sheets (10) than them this season so far.

Having at least one of their defenders in our FPL squads for the upcoming run of fixtures seems like a no brainer.

But even that may not be enough, as their defenders are starting to be very popular choice among many FPL managers.

Perhaps double up with Stone and Dias is the way to go for at least next 3 gameweeks where City have extremely favorable fixtures.

Expected number of clean sheets in GW 20

After a hectic period, there is finally just a single gameweek with 10 games ahead, so we can evaluate the expected number of clean sheets for GW 20 in the bigger picture.

Based on clean sheet odds, bookmakers expect 5.42 clean sheets in gameweek 20.

So far this Premier League season, we have seen 109 clean sheets in 19 gameweeks. In average, that’s 5.74 clean sheets per gameweek.

However, this calculation is distorted by not equal number of games in every gameweek (due to the blank GW18, double GW19 and postponements).

We have to adjust this average. We have to calculate an average number of clean sheets per 10 games, and not an average per gameweek to get accurate number for comparisons.

This season, we have seen 184 matches so far. So, the average number of clean sheets per 10 matches is 5.92. And this is the number that we are interested in.

Defensive "overperformance"

Bookies expect way less clean sheets in GW 20 (5.42) than the average number of clean sheets per 10 games (5.92).

At the beginning of the season, we have seen an “offensive overperformance”, crazy scores, and just few clean sheets.

Now, the situation is opposite. Number of clean sheets per 10 matches (5.92) is higher than the average number of clean sheets per gameweek from last Premier League season (5.45).

It means, that we are in the period of “defensive overperformance” now.

Based on the Law of Large Numbers, number of clean sheets per 10 games should revert to its mean (we consider this mean to be 5.45 clean sheets per 10 games – the number from last season).

This can only happen, if there are less clean sheets in future gameweeks. So, we should be prepared for that.

Bookmakers expect something similar, as their expected number of clean sheets in GW20 (5.42) is lower than the current average per 10 games (5.92). 

Back to formation with 3 defenders

During time of the “offensive overperformance” we were suggesting that you should be playing formation with 4 or 5 defenders until the number of clean sheets per gamewek reverts to its mean.

Now, it has reverted and even surpassed it and we are in “defensive overperformance” period.

We should consider playing formation with 3 defenders until the average number of clean sheets per GW reverts to its mean again.

But of course, we do not know how far this “defensive overperformance” period can go. So, we have to be careful to not fall into Gambler’s Fallacy with these kinds of thoughts.

Looking for further inspiration ahead of gameweek 20? Read our FPL GW 20 Tips.

Do you have something to add to this clean sheet analysis? Leave a comment below.

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