Which teams are most likely to keep a clean sheet in the following round of Fantasy Premier League? We regularly convert bookies clean sheet odds into probabilities to find out. We use our Odds to probability calculator in order to do that.
Do not forget to follow us on Twitter (@FplReports). We regularly post Clean Sheet Odds there as well.
Clean Sheet Odds for Premier League GW38
| Team | Clean Sheet Odds |
|---|---|
| Newcastle | 45% |
| Arsenal | 44% |
| Bournemouth | 42% |
| Man.City | 32% |
| Liverpool | 31% |
| Aston Villa | 30% |
| Chelsea | 25% |
| Brighton | 22% |
| West Ham | 20% |
| Brentford | 20% |
| Nottingham | 18% |
| Wolverhampton | 17% |
| Ipswich | 14% |
| Man.United | 13% |
| Fulham | 10% |
| Tottenham | 8% |
| Everton | 7% |
| Leicester | 6% |
| Southampton | 6% |
| Crystal Palace | 5% |
In the last season (2023/24), we were used to a rate of 4.13 clean sheets per gameweek. (A big decline in comparison to 2022/23 season when we saw 5.45 clean sheets per gameweek!)
Expected Clean Sheets
In the table below, you will find expected clean sheets for all Premier League teams. They are calculated from bookies clean sheet odds. If a team has a clean sheet probability of 33% in a certain gameweek, it means that he has 0.33 expected clean sheets in that gameweek.
The Expected Clean Sheets column represents the sum of expected clean sheets through all gameweeks in this season. It represents how many clean sheets each EPL team should have based on bookies odds.
Clean Sheets are the actual numbers of clean sheets that teams have kept this season.
Delta is the difference between expected clean sheets and actual clean sheets. It helps to spot defensive under/overperforming teams.
How expected clean sheets help you in FPL: this table will help you find teams which are overperforming or underperforming their defensive expectations.
If their real clean sheet number is higher than the expected clean sheets, they should have kept fewer clean sheets according to bookies odds.
Similarly, if their real clean sheet number is lower than the expected clean sheets, they should have kept more clean sheets according to bookies odds.
So, here is our table with most clean sheets for each EPL team in 2023/24 season in comparison with expected clean sheets according to bookies odds.
Most Clean Sheets in EPL 2024/25 (before GW38)
Team Expected Clean Sheets Clean Sheets Delta
Arsenal 14.1 13 -1.1
Aston Villa 9.68 9 -0.68
Bournemouth 7.72 8 0.28
Brentford 7.15 8 0.85
Brighton 8.68 8 -0.68
Crystal Palace 7.84 11 3.16
Everton 8.04 11 2.96
Fulham 8.32 5 -3.32
Chelsea 10.12 10 -0.12
Ipswich 4.8 2 -2.8
Leicester 4.77 3 -1.77
Liverpool 12.91 14 1.09
Man.City 11.98 12 0.02
Man.United 8.91 9 0.10
Newcastle 8.6 13 4.4
Nottingham 8.14 13 4.86
Southampton 4.02 3 -1.02
Tottenham 6.75 6 -0.75
West Ham 6.46 7 0.54
Wolverhampton 5.66 8 2.34
Total 164.65 173 8.35
Clean sheets left according to pre-season prediction
In the table below, you will find our predicted number of clean sheets for each epl team. The predicted clean sheets are calculated as the average of clean sheets each teams kept in the last five Premier League seasons. You can find our calculations here: Stable defensive teams.
According to the actual clean sheet count in 2023/24 season we can estimate how many clean sheets approximately remain for each team:
| Team | Predicted clean sheets | Actual Clean Sheets | Clean Sheets left |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester | 9.5 | 3 | 6.5 |
| Fulham | 9.33 | 5 | 4.33 |
| Man.City | 16.6 | 12 | 4.6 |
| Tottenham | 10.6 | 6 | 4.6 |
| Southampton | 7.5 | 3 | 4.5 |
| Man.United | 12 | 9 | 3 |
| Chelsea | 12.2 | 10 | 2.2 |
| Brighton | 10 | 8 | 2 |
| Ipswich | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Wolverhampton | 10 | 8 | 2 |
| Brentford | 9.33 | 8 | 1.33 |
| Aston Villa | 10.6 | 9 | 1.6 |
| West Ham | 8 | 7 | 1 |
| Arsenal | 13.4 | 13 | 0.4 |
| Liverpool | 14.4 | 14 | 0.4 |
| Nottingham | 6 | 13 | -7 |
| Newcastle | 10 | 13 | -3 |
| Crystal Palace | 9.8 | 11 | -1.2 |
| Bournemouth | 7.33 | 8 | -0.67 |
| Everton | 10.2 | 11 | -0.8 |
| Total | 200.79 | 173 | 27.79 |
