FPL GW 34+ Preview: Scout Selection, Best Captain and Differentials

FPL gameweeks are coming in a quick succession and we are approaching another deadline. We prepared for you short guide with some tips for GW 34+.

Tips for FPL GW34+

Best captain options for GW34+

3. Bruno Fernandes (AVL(A))

Since Bruno Fernandes has joined Manchester United he has been in outstanding form and he has been averaging 9 points per match in all matches and 10 points per match in away matches. He has been very active with 3.92 shots per 90 minutes and 1.96 key passes per 90 minutes. However, something to be aware of is that 76 percent of shots this season was outside of the box and that he was not getting to the box as often as he teammates Marcus Rashford or Anthony Martial.

Aston Villa is still a team that conceded most goals this season (60) and also most xG against (64.21) this season. However it looks like their defense improved after the break: they conceded only 2.74 xG against in four matches after the break what makes them fourth best team in this statistic (calculated from matches after the break). Whether it is beginning of a new trend, in which is Aston Villa improving defensively, or it is just an extreme value in short amount of observation remains to be seen. Despite that we consider Bruno Fernandes as a big contender for the armband in GW 34+

2. Mohamed Salah (BHA(A))

There is still a golden boot to chase for Mohamed Salah. He is just two goals behind Aubameyang and four behind Vardy. Against Manchester City he looked very hungry for goals. There are still worries about rotation from Liverpool after they won the title, but it is really hard to predict who and when will be rotated.

And even if Salah is benched, with the possibility of five subs he will likely come on and could do some damage against Brighton defense. After the restart of the Premier League, he has been averaging 4.5 shots per 90 minutes and 2 key passes per 90 minutes.

1. Kevin De Bruyne (NEW(H))

He is the best player in the FPL this season and he showed his masterclass even in the match against Liverpool. And just as we wrote in one of our previous articles: when in doubt, captain the best player. Kevin De Bruyne has already surpassed his best FPL season (209 points in 2017/18) and with outstanding 7.17 FPL points per match during this season he is on course to score 258 points in 2019/20.  

He is getting points almost in every kind of matches – and he registered an attacking return in 63 percent of matches this season. Similarly to Salah, he could be rotated, but it is hard to predict when. He started 28 from 30 matches when he was fit this season, what shows his importance to the Man City, so we do not expect many benchings of De Bruyne to come from Guardiola until the end of season. There could be some rest for him in 1 or 2 matches, but even as a substitute he could do well.

Differential captain pick: Heung-Min Son (BOU (A))

If you are looking to gamble a bit with your GW 34+ captain and you do not consider any of three suspects above, we have one differential captain pick for you. No team conceded more goals since Premier League restart than Bournemouth and we favor Spurs attackers to do well against them.

Heung-Min Son is the most productive asset from Tottenham with 9 goals and 9 assists this season so far. He has more shots per 90 minutes than Harry Kane this season (3.01 vs. 2.93) and only Bergwijn has more key passes per 90 minutes than him (1.55 vs 1.58). We know he can be very explosive and as a midfielder, he has a better points ceiling than Harry Kane.

You can compare stats of our all captain picks in the table:

PlayerShots per 90Key Passes per 90xG per 90xA per 90
Son3.011.550.360.29
Fernandes3.921.960.410.18
Salah3.941.880.60.28
De Bruyne3.263.810.270.6

Source: Understat

Differential picks for GW34+

Christian Pulisic (CRY(A))

Christian Pulisic is in hot form with 2 goals and 3 assists in his last 4 Premier League matches. It looks that after the break he is regular starter for Chelsea. He looks very sharp and direct to the goal, and currently represents main goal threat from Chelsea players.

After the break he is averaging 4.25 shots per 90 minutes and 0.85 key passes. However, his expected stats suggest slight overperformance when he turned 1.46 xG and 0.06xA into 2 goals and 3 FPL assists.

Phil Foden (NEW (H))

Another youngster that is currently on fire. Phil Foden is getting more and more minutes in Manchester City team and he is rewarding Guardiola’s faith with goals. Similarly like Pulisic, he was little bit overperforming his expected stats after the FPL restart (4 goals and 1 assist from 0.95 xG and 0.46 xA), but he has great momentum.

Man City has amazing run of fixtures until the end of the season and paying 5.3m for their midfielders could be game changing thing in your FPL mini-league.

GW34+ clean sheets probabilities

Make smart decision about your defense in gameweek 34+ and take into consideration probabilities of keeping a clean sheet converted from bookies odds.

TeamProbability of CS
Man City60 %
Man United46 %
Liverpool42 %
Chelsea40 %
Wolves40 %
Watford38 %
Spurs37 %
West Ham34 %
Everton33 %
Sheffield Utd26 %
Arsenal25 %
Burnley21 %
Leicester19 %
Southampton18 %
Norwich15 %
Crystal Palace15 %
Bournemouth14 %
Brighton12 %
Aston Villa9 %
Newcastle5 %

Scout selection for GW34+

Thanks to the information about stats from Understat and bookies odds of clean sheets, we constructed our Scout Selection for upcoming FPL gameweek.

Goalkeeper

Foster

4.9 m | NOR(H)

Defence

Laporte

6.3 m | NEW(H)

Maguire

5.3 m | AVL (A)

Doherty

6.4 m | SHU (A)

Aurier

5.0 m | BOU(A)

Midfield

De Bruyne (C)

10.7 m | NEW (H)

Foden

5.3 m | NEW(H)

Son

9.8 m | BOU(A)

Fernandes

8.8 m | AVL(A)

Salah

12.6 m | BHA(A)

Attack

Jimenez

8.3 m | SHU(A)

Norwich is struggling and have failed to score a goal since the FPL restart. That reflected into bookies odds of Watford keeping a clean sheet against them. 38 percent probability of keeping CS is really solid, so Foster is the number one in goal of our scout squad.

We are going 4 at the back, because there is great value in terms of points per million in (mainly) attacking defenders. 60 percent probability of a clean sheet for Man City is really a must for us to include one of their defenders and Laporte is our go to option. Manchester United is in top spots of our clean sheets odds tables every week after restart and this time it is Harry Maguire who made it into our scout squad.

Wolves have kept 3 clean sheets after the break and Matt Doherty has been important part not just their defense but their attack, too. Serge Aurier is the last defender in our squad and he could add another attacking return to his tally against leaky defense of Bournemouth.

We expect Son, Salah and Fernandes to do well, they are all strong captain contenders, but it is Kevin De Bruyne who gets the armband. Foden is a cheap differential in our selection. We decided to play only one striker this week and it is Wolves talisman Raul Jimenez.

Benchfolders for times of rotation

We will likely see a lot of rotation until the end of the season. It is great to have full playing bench during these times, but still as cheap as possible. So as our last tip, we want to mention some very cheap options that are playing more regularly for their teams and that could be perfect benchfolders for your FPL team.

  • Goalkeeper: Martinez (4.3m, Arsenal)
  • Defenders: Lamptey (4.0m, Brighton), Kiko Femenia (4.2m, Watford)
  • Midfielders: Davis (4.3m, Aston Villa), Douglas Luiz (4.3m, Aston Villa)
  • Forwards: Greenwood (4.4m, Manchester United), Nketiah (4.4m, Arsenal)

Do not forget to order your bench before the deadline of GW34+. We hope our tips helped you to not overlook anaything and to gather information to beat your mini-league rivals.