In pretty low-scoring gameweek last week we at least enjoyed more clean sheets than usual.
Now, the important question ahead of GW7.
Who is most likely to keep a clean sheet in the gameweek 7? We converted bookies odds into probabilities to find it out.
Clean sheet odds for GW7 of FPL
|Team||Probability of CS|
|Man City||46 %|
|Man United||28 %|
|West Brom||25 %|
|Crystal Palace||24 %|
|Aston Villa||21 %|
|West Ham||7 %|
Based on these clean sheet odds, bookmakers expect very low amount of CS in GW7 – only 4,75 (That is their lowest prediction this season so far).
Clean sheet analysis
Last week we mentioned that we saw massive decrease in the count of clean sheets per gameweek in comparison with last season. Last season we have seen 5.45 clean sheets per gameweek. In this season, it has been 4.67 so far (this number was 4.51 before GW6, so we have seen small increase in clean sheet count after GW6).
As we mentioned last week, we have seen an “offensive overperformance” so far and more goals that we should have (and less clean sheets as we should, obviously).
Things started to level a bit due to very low scoring gameweek 6. Before GW6, players oveperformed their xG by 32.5 goals. After GW6 the difference between all goals scored and their xG is slightly smaller just 31.84.
We will see further regression in goals scored and increase in clean sheet count? Hard to tell. We must be careful to not fall into the Gambler’s Fallacy when analyzing this kind of data.