FPL GW7: Clean sheet odds

In pretty low-scoring gameweek last week we at least enjoyed more clean sheets than usual.

Now, the important question ahead of GW7.

Who is most likely to keep a clean sheet in the gameweek 7? We converted bookies odds into probabilities to find it out.

Clean sheet odds for GW7 of FPL

TeamProbability of CS
Man City46 %
Wolves42 %
Liverpool38 %
Chelsea36 %
Spurs35 %
Everton31 %
Fulham30 %
Man United28 %
West Brom25 %
Crystal Palace24 %
Leicester23 %
Leeds22 %
Aston Villa21 %
Arsenal19 %
Southampton19 %
Newcastle18 %
Brighton13 %
Burnley11 %
Sheffield7 %
West Ham7 %

Based on these clean sheet odds, bookmakers expect very low amount of CS in GW7 – only 4,75 (That is their lowest prediction this season so far).

Clean sheet analysis

Last week we mentioned that we saw massive decrease in the count of clean sheets per gameweek in comparison with last season. Last season we have seen 5.45 clean sheets per gameweek. In this season, it has been 4.67 so far (this number was 4.51 before GW6, so we have seen small increase in clean sheet count after GW6).

As we mentioned last week, we have seen an “offensive overperformance” so far and more goals that we should have (and less clean sheets as we should, obviously).

Things started to level a bit due to very low scoring gameweek 6. Before GW6, players oveperformed their xG by 32.5 goals. After GW6 the difference between all goals scored and their xG is slightly smaller just 31.84.

Conclusion

We will see further regression in goals scored and increase in clean sheet count? Hard to tell. We must be careful to not fall into the Gambler’s Fallacy when analyzing this kind of data.