We have a seen a lot of goals so far in the Premier League and many FPL managers started to move their money from the defense to the midfield or to the attack. Is it a good move? Well, bookmakers, again, predict a lower count of clean sheets for the upcoming gameweek than usual, so it points that way, too.
However, it is not that simple as it looks and we dig deeper into at the end of this article.
But first, check probabilities of clean sheets that we got from bookies odds of clean sheet odds using the Odds to probability calculator. So, who will keep a clean sheet in gameweek 6? Let’s find out.
Clean sheet odds for Fantasy Premier League GW6
Liverpool and Wolves have very high chance of clean sheet in the GW6, while Sheffield and West Ham are at the bottom of the probabilities table.
Team Probability of CS Liverpool 47 % Wolves 43 % Spurs 39 % Man City 38 % Brighton 36 % Crystal Palace 31 % Arsenal 30 % Fulham 29 % Aston Villa 26 % Everton 25 % Man United 22 % Southampton 21 % Chelsea 20 % Leeds 20 % Newcastle 20 % West Brom 17 % Leicester 16 % Burnley 15 % Sheffield 7 % West Ham 7 %
What surprises me is that bookies assign pretty low probability to Aston Villa keeping a clean sheet. Aston Villa have the best defensive stats from all Premier League teams so far this season.
Of course, we have a small sample size and Aston Villa played one game less, but still their stats are impressive. Three clean sheets in four games, only two goals conceded and only 3.71 xG against conceded. No other team can beat that.
And yet, according to the bookies, Aston Villa will keep a clean sheet against Leeds with a likelihood of 26 %. Yes, Leeds have offensive qualities but their underlying offensive numbers are the numbers of a mid-table team.
Personally, I would expect the probability of Aston Villa keeping a clean sheet somewhere around 30 – 33% based on their current form.
Expected number of clean sheets based on odds
Again, bookmakers predict that we will see less clean sheets than we were seeing during last season. Based on clean sheet odds, we should see 5.06 clean sheets in GW6.
In the last season we were seeing 5.45 clean sheets per gameweek, what is a big difference. However, so far this season, we have seen only 4.4 clean sheets per gameweek, what is more than one clean sheet less per gameweek than the last season.
However, bookmakers do not expect such a low number for GW6. It means that they see some kind of an “offensive overperformance” what means that we have seen more goals than we should have and less clean sheets than we should have.
Let’s dig deeper into that.
Based on the Expected Goals data from Understat we have seen 172 goals from only 139.5 xG so far this season. That means that we have seen 32.5 goals more than we should have. If we consider 139.5 goals to be an expected value of goals for GW1-GW5, then with 172 goals we are way above this expected value.
That is unsustainable from the statistical point of view. We should have been seeing an average of 27.9 goals (139.5 / 5) per gameweek, but we have been seeing 34.4 goals (172 / 5) per gameweek.
So, bookies are aware of that, that is why their expected number of clean sheets for gameweek 6 is not as low as 4.4, but “only” 5.06.
Because of The Large Numbers Law, we will likely see a decrease in the number of goals scored per gameweek in the future gameweeks, until the average of goals scored per gameweek gets closer to its expected value.
So, of course, that suggests that we will see an increase in clean sheet count, too. However, we cannot really predict when this happen. And we also should be careful to not fall into the Gambler’s Fallacy with this kind of knowledge.
However, it is a great example of what is going on right now with goals and clean sheets and why.